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WILDWOOD, N.J. – When you drive on Route 40 in southern New Jersey, you’re reminded why it’s called the Garden State. For Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli, these verdant fields and small Victorian towns are both an opportunity and a challenge.
Currently, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill holds about a five-point lead in polling averages. But in 2024, when polls showed President Donald Trump losing New Jersey by double digits, he ended up losing by only six. Ciattarelli himself also beat polling expectations, even while losing the 2021 governor’s race.
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Put simply — and both campaigns know this — if the polls today are off in similar ways to recent cycles, Ciattarelli may already be leading.
On Friday, the Republican nominee will headline a rally in the southern shore town of Wildwood, joined by local officials and conservative personalities such as Jack Posobiec and Scott Presler.
The event underscores not only the importance of South Jersey in the race but also the level of enthusiasm and voter interest Republicans need to drive turnout in this mostly rural and exurban region.
In deep-blue enclaves like Newark or Hoboken, a canvasser can knock on 100 doors on a single block during a get-out-the-vote effort. And make no mistake: public-sector unions backing Sherrill will be doing just that, as well as driving voters to the polls.
In much of Cape May County, though, that’s impossible. The homes are too far apart and the land too sparsely populated.
It may not be the only way to overcome this ground-game disadvantage, but one of the best is voter enthusiasm. That enthusiasm, too, can drive voters to the polls — if a bit less literally than a volunteer can.
On this front, Ciattarelli had some good news in a recent Fox News poll showing that 50% of his supporters are enthusiastic about the election, compared with 42% for Sherrill’s.
In Wednesday night’s debate, the final one of the race, Ciattarelli worked hard to stay positive and focused on issues such as lowering energy prices — perhaps the biggest concern on voters’ minds — as well as improving infrastructure and education.
Tellingly, the highlight of Sherrill’s performance was a bizarre accusation that her opponent was responsible for the deaths of “tens of thousands” of New Jerseyans because a medical publishing company he once owned printed materials about pain relief.
The accusation may be silly, but the tactic is not. Ugly campaigns — with mud slung far and wide — dampen voter enthusiasm, and that’s often a recipe for Democratic victory in New Jersey.
Another bit of good news for Ciattarelli is that he has made this a close race with almost a month still to go. In his failed 2021 campaign, he surged late and came up just short. We saw something similar across the Hudson River in the 2022 New York governor’s race, when Lee Zeldin’s late push wasn’t enough to overcome Gov. Kathy Hochul.
This time, Ciattarelli has a full month of a competitive race to sell his vision to the people of the Garden State — not to convince them he has a shot, as before, but to show them he can make the state a better place.
On a final note, Sherrill’s TV ads so far have focused almost entirely on tying her opponent to Trump. A couple of weeks ago, that probably looked like money well spent.
But today, Trump sits on the verge of brokering peace in the Middle East and securing the release of hostages held by Hamas — accomplishments for which even some of his harshest critics are begrudgingly giving him credit.
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In this environment, Ciattarelli’s “I like Trump, but I’m not Trump” approach could bear electoral fruit. Voters who view the Trump presidency as a catastrophe will never vote Republican, but the number of such voters appears to be declining.
I’ll be at Friday’s rally, which will also include a memorial service for Charlie Kirk. We’ll see just how much enthusiasm the event can bring to Ciattarelli’s campaign.
In May 2020, Trump held a rally in Wildwood that drew unexpectedly huge crowds — at a time when his return to the White House still seemed like a long shot. It breathed life into his campaign.
That day in Jersey was a turning point for Trump. On Friday, on those same beaches of Wildwood, Ciattarelli will be looking for some similar mojo.
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