Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are wagering that the federal government shutdown will extend well into next month, as partisan gridlock shows little sign of easing.
As the standoff enters a third week, hundreds of thousands of federal workers remain furloughed ahead of a Senate vote Tuesday.
Traders on Kalshi give a 65% chance that the government shutdown will last until Oct. 31, with about 52% betting it will stretch just over 36 days.
PREDICTION MARKET TRADERS BET SHUTDOWN WILL LAST FOR WEEKS
About 44% of traders expect the government shutdown to last more than 40 days.
The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, sits just north of $8.1 million.
SWEEPING LAYOFFS ‘HAVE BEGUN’ AS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN DRAGS ON
Meanwhile, 100% of traders on Polymarket expect the shutdown to last at least until Oct. 15, with more than $2.6 million wagered on the market.
In trading that extends through Nov. 15, the biggest group of traders, around 26%, are betting the government shutdown will drag on until Nov. 16.
The odds on prediction markets offer a snapshot of trader expectations, not a forecast of when the shutdown will end.
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN 101: WE’VE BEEN HERE BEFORE, HERE’S WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
At 12:01 a.m. ET on Oct. 7, the federal government shut down, requiring agencies to furlough employees in nonessential roles.
Such shutdowns are usually temporary. Once Congress reaches an agreement, federal workers are reinstated and paid retroactively.
SHUTDOWN FIGHT CASTS A SHADOW OVER JOBS AS TRUMP PREPARES FOR LARGEST FEDERAL RESIGNATION IN US HISTORY
Last week, the White House said it had begun a sweeping downsizing of its workforce.
One official from the Office of Management and Budget, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told Fox News Digital on Oct. 10 that the downsizing would be “substantial.”
Since 1976, the U.S. government has experienced 20 shutdowns.
The most recent one, the longest in U.S. history, occurred when a dispute over funding Trump’s border wall halted government operations for 34 days, spanning from December 2018 into January 2019.
Read the full article here
