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With just over a week until Election Day, Zohran Mamdani holds a double-digit lead in the raucous race for the nation’s most populous city, but former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is narrowing the gap, according to a new public opinion poll.
Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist state lawmaker from the New York City borough of Queens who shocked the political world in June with his convincing win over Cuomo and nine other candidates to capture the Democratic Party’s mayoral nomination, stands at 44% support among likely voters in the most recent survey in the race, from Suffolk University.
Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid multiple scandals and who is running as an Independent candidate in the general election after losing the primary, had 34% support in the survey.
The survey was conducted Thursday through Sunday, entirely after incumbent Mayor Eric Adams endorsed Cuomo in a bid to defeat Mamdani. The embattled Democratic mayor had been running for re-election as an independent but dropped out of the race late last month, although his name remains on the ballot.
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Guardian Angels co-founder Curtis Sliwa, who for a second straight election is the Republican mayoral nominee in the Democratic-dominated city, stood at 11% in the poll. The remaining four candidates listed on the ballot grabbed 2% support, with 7% undecided and 2% questioned in the survey refusing to respond.
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Mamdani’s 10-point advantage over Cuomo is down from his 20-point lead in Suffolk’s September poll.
Suffolk University Political Research Center director David Paleologos highlighted that “Cuomo’s biggest gains” were among Hispanic voters and independents.
Cuomo has turned up the volume on his criticisms of Mamdani during the closing stretch of the campaign, with dire warnings that “mayhem” would follow a Mamdani victory in the mayoral election.
He’s also repeatedly spotlighted Mamdani’s Muslim faith and criticized his rival for painting himself as a victim because of his faith. Cuomo has argued that Mamdani has offended Jewish New Yorkers and charged that his rival is antisemitic because of his comments opposing the Israeli government and calling its attacks on Palestinians in Gaza a “genocide.”
Mamdani, firing back, told reporters recently that “we’re speaking about a former governor who, in his final moments in public life, is engaging in rhetoric that is not only Islamophobic, not only racist, it’s also disgusting.”
Meanwhile, Sliwa, a longtime fixture in New York City politics, has been the target of a pressure campaign to drop out of the race to set up a one-on-one matchup between Cuomo and Mamdani, in a frantic effort to avert a Mamdani victory.
Among those urging Sliwa to end his bid is billionaire businessman and conservative radio host John Catsimatidis, a top New York City Republican and ally of President Donald Trump.
Sliwa voters, when given a second choice, preferred Cuomo over Mamdani by 36%–2%, according to the poll.
“There is only one person in New York City whose voters will determine the outcome,” Paleologos said. “And that person isn’t Mayor Adams, Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer, or any New York billionaire. It’s Republican Curtis Sliwa and his voters who hold the 11% blocking Cuomo from winning the race. Politics has its ironies.”
The Ugandan-born Mamdani, if elected, would become the first Muslim and first Millennial mayor in New York City’s history.
Mamdani surged to the Democratic primary victory thanks to an energetic campaign that put a major focus on affordability and New York City’s high cost of living. It was fueled by a grassroots army of supporters and backing from top national progressive champions, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Mamdani made smart use of social media platforms, including TikTok, as he engaged low-propensity voters. He proposed eliminating fares to ride New York City’s vast bus system, making CUNY (City University of New York) “tuition-free,” freezing rents on municipal housing, offering free childcare for children up to age 5 and setting up government-run grocery stores.
Mamdani has been heavily criticized by his rivals not only for his far-left proposals, but also for his criticism of Israel, his past negative comments regarding the New York City Police Department (NYPD) and his proposal to shift certain responsibilities away from the NYPD and focus on social services and community-based programs.
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