An unnamed online user reeled in nearly half a million dollars on betting site Polymarket after accurately predicting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be ousted by the end of January.
The user, who went by “Burdensome-Mix” and was relatively new to the site, placed more than $32,000 in bets related to Maduro’s capture, reeling in more than $400,000 after he was taken into custody, according to a report from NBC News.
The user’s largest bets were placed the night before U.S. troops invaded Maduro’s compound.
At least four other Polymarket accounts placed bets about Maduro being ousted by the end January, though their winnings only ranged from $7,000 to $14,000, according to the report.
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The dashboard where the winnings were posted is no longer publicly available.
Chainalysis, which helps government agencies, businesses and financial institutions investigate cryptocurrency transactions, told FOX Business activity from “Burdensome-Mix” did not appear to be fraudulent.
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“That trader is funding and cashing out their account at multiple mainstream U.S. exchanges without using any obfuscation techniques, suggesting they are not attempting to conceal their activity,” a spokesperson wrote in a statement.
Additional betting markets relating to Maduro’s impending trial have been published on the site since his capture, including one titled, “Maduro trial scheduled by January 31,” in which $122,823 worth of shares have been traded.
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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022 ordered Blockratize, Inc., operating as Polymarket, to pay a $1.4M penalty for violating regulations, finding the company was hosting unregistered “event markets” allowing users to bet yes and no outcomes on future events.
The CFTC also ordered Polymarket to block U.S. users, a ban that remained in effect until the company received regulatory approval in 2025.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment.
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