Day-to-day: A tragic death further stretches the GOP’s razor-thin House majority

It was 1991. The Chicago Cubs were in Chavez Ravine for a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Legendary Dodgers broadcaster Vin Scully was at the mic.

Cubs outfielder and former National League MVP Andre Dawson was out of the lineup.

“Andre Dawson has a bruised knee,” the golden-throated Scully declared to his radio congregation, tuning in from Pasadena to the San Fernando Valley. “He is listed as day-to-day.”

Then Scully paused for a moment. It was as though Scully was in deep reflection. Perhaps seized by the spirit of the national pastime in one of baseball’s most hallowed cathedrals, Dodger Stadium.

HOUSE GOP REP DOUG LAMALFA DEAD AT 65

“Then again, aren’t we all?” added Scully.

Aren’t we all.

You.

Me.

Andre Dawson and his knee.

The late Vin Scully.

Even late Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Calif.

REP LAMALFA’S DEATH FURTHER SHRINKS REPUBLICAN HOUSE MAJORITY

He died this week at age 65 during emergency surgery after an aortic aneurysm.

“It really shook us,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., of LaMalfa’s sudden death.

The speaker said Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Calif., whose northern California district borders LaMalfa’s, called the late congressman “the kindest man I ever knew.” Johnson noted that McClintock didn’t say “one of the kindest.” But the kindest.

Seven House members have died since April 2024. The previous six were Democrats. LaMalfa is the first Republican to die since then. In fact, there’s a runoff between two Democrats — Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards — in a special election to succeed late Rep. Sylvester Turner, D-Texas. Turner died in March after only two months in office.

House Republicans have had a tenuous hold on their majority for a while now. LaMalfa’s death — coupled with Monday’s resignation of former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga. — squeezes the GOP even further.

It’s about the math.

Counting LaMalfa and Greene, the GOP margin shrivels to 218-213 with 431 members and four vacancies. The Republican majority thins again when either Menefee or Edwards wins the Texas special election later this month. It’s then 218-214 with 432 members and three vacancies.

The margin is four. But, on the floor, Republicans can only lose one vote and still pass something on their own without Democratic assistance. Losing two votes produces a 216-216 tie. By rule, ties lose in the House.

Word of LaMalfa’s death came as we learned that 80-year-old Rep. Jim Baird R-Ind., was in the hospital after a car accident. Baird is fine but not on Capitol Hill to vote this week.

Just how fragile is the GOP’s grip on power in the House?

“We are one flu season away from losing the majority,” said Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn.

By the way, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say the U.S. is experiencing its worst flu season since 1997-98. The CDC just announced a new flu variant this week.

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A couple of points. The Constitution prohibits governors from appointing someone to the House. That only works in the Senate. Voters must elect House members. And control of the House of Representatives has never flipped in the middle of the Congress. The Senate has. But not the House.

It’s about the math.

“We’ve been working with a razor-thin majority since I became speaker. And, as you know, at many points in the last year, we had a one- or two-vote majority at any given moment,” said Johnson. “But this is the group that has demonstrated over and over and over and over that we defy expectations and make history.”

Conjecture still abounds around the Capitol that a few disgruntled House Republicans could resign. I asked Johnson about Burchett’s remark.

The speaker was philosophical.

“None of us are guaranteed tomorrow. None of us. We don’t know what’s going to happen. The Bible says you don’t worry about tomorrow. You focus on today,” replied Johnson. “I’m not worried about the numbers. I don’t get up in apprehension or anxiety in any day. I get up every day with hope.”

We’re all day-to-day.

So too is the House Republican majority. Things are day-to-day.

As stated earlier, the House has never flipped in the middle of a Congress. Frankly, it’s a lot harder than the Senate. It has more people. For the House to switch control, the GOP must lose two more seats. But those seats must also be filled immediately. That doesn’t happen. Special elections take months, depending on the state.

But even at a prospective nadir of 218-214, it takes a lot to change control of the House in the middle of a Congress. Even if Republicans lost three more members, they’d still hold a 215-214 majority. Things could become very interesting if the split went to 214-214. And don’t forget, these numbers will evolve in the coming months.

There’s a special election to succeed Greene March 10. There will likely be a special election to succeed LaMalfa in the spring or summer. There’s also a special election in the spring to fulfill the term of Democratic New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill, who resigned from the House last year.

So, don’t count on the House switching any time soon.

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But there is a historical anomaly.

Lawmakers are sworn in to begin the new Congress Jan. 3 of odd years of the election in November of the prior even year. However, the ratification of the 20th Amendment to the Constitution moved the swearing-in of the President to Jan. 20. Previously it was March 4. In those days, new Congresses began  Dec. 7. Not a month after the election. But an astonishing 13 MONTHS AFTER the election.

In other words, you would have an election in November of an even year. But the institution wouldn’t seat the new Congress until December of the FOLLOWING ODD year.

And they complain about a two-month lame duck Congress now.

The 1930 midterms hit during the Great Depression and the broken administration of President Herbert Hoover. Republicans held the House majority but lost 52 seats, clinging to a narrow majority. The breakdown was 218-216 with one “Farmer-Labor” member.

However, during the 13-month interregnum before the start of the 72nd Congress in December 1931, 14 “Representatives-elect” died. Democrats won enough special elections to seize the majority, 219-213, with one third-party member. One of the casualties was even late House Speaker Nicholas Longworth, R-Ohio.

So, this wasn’t a mid-session switch. But the House would have changed hands in the middle of the Congress under the contemporary operating calendar.

Lawmakers are mourning their late colleague, Doug LaMalfa. He was beloved on both sides of the aisle. LaMalfa was the House classmate of Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., both elected in 2012. Jeffries called LaMalfa a “great member of Congress” and led a moment of silence at a forum Democrats conducted about the Jan. 6 riot.

So, it’s doubtful the House could switch in mid-stream. But who knows?

Andre Dawson was “day to day” with his knee injury.

And as Vin Scully would say, “Aren’t we all?”