The betting markets are more convinced than ever that President Biden will not be the Democrat who will ultimately take on former President Trump in November’s election, as pressure builds for the president to step aside for another candidate.
As of Thursday afternoon, traders on major prediction platform Polymarket gave Biden only a 22% chance of becoming the Democratic Party’s nominee, while PredictIt put the odds at 23%.
Those are the lowest chances Biden has had on both platforms since they began allowing bets on the race, and his odds of staying in appear in freefall after a flurry of reports over the past 24 hours that top Democrats are urging the president to drop out.
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On BetUS.com, Biden’s odds were not as bad, with bettors giving the president a 40% chance of holding on as the Democrats’ presidential candidate for 2024.
Vice President Kamala Harris is now favored to top the ticket on all three sites, with her odds of becoming the presidential nominee sitting at 62%, 64% and 67%, respectively.
“Our odds correctly predicted JD Vance being picked as Trump’s running mate and I’m confident we will see our odds correctly predict this [the Democratic nominee for president] as well,” said Tim Williams, director of public relations for BetUS. “Get ready to see Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket.”
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Williams said there are some customers taking long-shot bets on former first lady Michelle Obama, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to top the Democrats’ ticket, but people making those bets are just playing for a large potential payout of 20-to-1 or more. “It’s like a lottery ticket,” he said. “But those aren’t the serious political bettors.”
Williams added, “The serious money is coming in on Kamala Harris now.”
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