Senate map tightens as top forecaster moves 3 races toward Democrats

A leading nonpartisan political handicapper shifted three Senate races toward the Democrats Thursday and predicted that, with just under five months to go until the midterm elections, the Democrats have a “clearer path to winning the Senate majority.”

But Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia adds that, despite the shifts, “we still favor Republicans in the overall race for the Senate.”

Republicans control the Senate 53-47 but are battling stiff political headwinds because the party in power in the nation’s capital traditionally loses seats in the midterms. 

The GOP also faces a rough political climate fueled by economic concerns amid persistent inflation and rising gas prices tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and President Donald Trump’s underwater approval ratings.

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Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the race in battleground North Carolina from toss-up to lean Democrat. Former two-term Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is facing off against former Republican National Committee Chair Mike Whatley in the race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.

It moved the Senate showdown in Alaska, where GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan is expected to face off against former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, from lean Republican to toss-up.

And in Ohio, where appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted is being challenged by former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, it shifted the rating from lean Republican to toss up.

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The movement toward the Democrats in the Ohio race comes a week after a Fox News poll indicated Brown up by eight points, 53%-45%, over Husted.

Democrats need a net gain pickup of four seats in the midterms to win back control of the Senate they lost in the 2024 elections.

Pointing to the four races it now considers toss-ups, Sabato’s Crystal Ball said, “There are now enough Toss-up races to give Democrats a clearer path to winning the Senate majority. … But Republicans can block Democrats by winning just one of the Toss-ups, meaning that they’re still better-positioned to hold the majority.”

The ratings shift by Sabato’s Crystal Ball comes a month after another top nonpartisan political handicapper, the Cook Report, moved its rankings of four key Senate races in favor of the Democrats.

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Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chair Kirsten Gillibrand of New York is optimistic Democrats can flip the chamber. Gillibrand told Fox News Digital earlier this year she sees “all the makings of a blue wave.”

Gillibrand’s rival, National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Tim Scott of South Carolina, acknowledged in a Fox News Digital interview earlier this year that “there’s no doubt the climate has gotten more and more difficult.”

But Scott emphasized he remains “incredibly optimistic, not only about holding the majority, but still expanding the majority.”

And NRSC National Press Secretary Bernadette Breslin told Fox News Digital Thursday that “no battleground races can be taken for granted. While Democrat candidates lurch further left to appease their radical base, Republicans are staying focused on lowering costs, investing in American workers, and doing the work required to defend the majority.”