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An old hand very familiar to Israel has emerged as the new political leader of Hamas following a secret insider election that took months to unfold, and one regional expert said the development signals the terrorist group will not be charting a new course.
Khalil al-Hayya, who has been a key negotiator for Hamas and who has survived multiple alleged assassination attempts, will now lead the group’s political bureau. But Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Jaser AbuMousa told Fox News Digital his election is not exactly a passing of the torch.
“Expect more of the same, deliberately,” AbuMousa said. “Al-Hayya is Hamas’s chief negotiator and its ultimate institutional survivor, so you’ll see continued engagement at the negotiating table, ceasefire talks, prisoner exchanges, but do not mistake that for moderation.”
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“Al-Hayya’s victory is best understood as an act of institutional self-preservation: a battered organization reaching for the most familiar hand available,” AbuMousa warned. “He is an experienced operator, and his elevation signals that Hamas, after the destruction of Gaza and the losses since Oct. 7, 2023, has prioritized organizational cohesion, armed continuity, and the preservation of its Iranian relationship over a genuine political reassessment.”
Several members of al-Hayya’s family, including four sons and other relatives, have also been killed in Israeli operations, according to reports.
In September 2025, Israel reportedly sought to kill al-Hayya in Qatar, striking a building where the Hamas delegation was staying.
“This is the paradox of Hamas leadership right now: the top job is essentially a death sentence, which is part of why the chair sat empty for nearly two years after Sinwar was killed,” the expert said.
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“Al-Hayya himself also survived the Israeli strike in Doha last September. For an ordinary executive, that would be disqualifying,” he noted. “Inside Hamas it’s the opposite — surviving assassination is a credential.”
“Expect him to lead the way his predecessors did: rarely in public, moving between Doha and mediating capitals, communicating through statements and negotiators rather than appearances, with the real command decentralized so no single strike decapitates the movement,” AbuMousa continued. “An organization that rewards who has suffered most, rather than who has led best, has no real mechanism to correct course after a catastrophe like this one. That’s what should make anyone nervous.”
“Al-Hayya lost his four sons, which is a real and profound loss for any father. But two things can be true at once,” he noted. “His personal grief is genuine, and inside Hamas that sacrifice also functions as political capital that lifts him above criticism.”
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While Al-Hayya replaced Yahya Sinwar, who was killed by Israeli forces in October 2024, his rise to power followed a secret election that stretched over months.
“After the near-total destruction of Gaza and staggering losses since Oct. 7, Hamas had a moment to reassess, and it chose continuity instead,” AbuMousa said. “It elevated a loyal survivor tied to Iran and the military wing rather than someone offering a different path.”
“The real story,” according to AbuMousa, “is that Hamas decided its safest bet was to remain exactly what it was: armed, aligned with Tehran, and unwilling to reckon with where its own decisions led Gaza.”
He also cautioned against viewing the leadership vote as a mandate from Gazans.
“This was a closed vote by a leadership council, not an election by the roughly 2 million Gazans whose lives Hamas claims to represent and who haven’t voted since 2006. Many of them blame Hamas for exposing them to this catastrophe,” he said.
“And watch the likely governance model: not a return to running Gaza openly, but a Hezbollah-style arrangement where Hamas sheds visible responsibility while keeping its weapons, its security structures, and a veto over any political deal,” he added.
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