Vice president and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate at any time, and the betting markets have crowned a clear favorite – but a wild card could still emerge.
Just a week ago, Arizona Gov. Mark Kelly was seen as Harris’ most likely pick for VP on prediction sites tracked by FOX Business, but he has since been dethroned.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro now dominates, with BetUS giving him an 80% chance of becoming Harris’ pick, while PredictIt sees him having 72% odds, and Polymarket traders favor him at 69%.
“Josh Shapiro is now the clear and undisputed favorite,” BetUS director of public relations Tim Williams told FOX Business on Friday. “I’d say Shapiro is about as close to a sure thing as we ever see in betting markets.”
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Last week, Shapiro was the favorite among bettors at BetUS, but Kelly was the favorite of odds-makers for the platform.
“Assuming Shapiro clenches the VP nomination, I would say the moral of the story is to trust the betting public first, and the odds-makers second,” Williams said. “People really do put their money where their mouth is, so-to-speak.”
Kelly’s odds have tumbled on all three sites. He’s now in fourth place on PredictIt, with a 9% chance, and on PolyMarket, at 6%.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is now in second place on BetUS with a 23% chance of becoming the Democrats’ VP nominee. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is in second place on both PredictIt and PolyMarket, with odds of 17% and 13%, respectively.
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Shapiro’s stock has surged since the Harris campaign announced she would kick off a tour of battleground states next week with her running mate alongside, beginning with a rally in Pennsylvania – the state Shapiro leads – on Tuesday.
The Harris campaign remains mum on whether a selection has been made, and until the official announcement, traders will be placing their bets.
“Gov. Josh Shapiro is definitely having a good week in the PredictIt markets,” PredictIt public relations director Lindsey Singer told FOX Business. “But Harris’ campaign is telling us not to read too much into the rally location early next week, so you’ll want to continue to keep a close eye on this one as there could be significant trading opportunities for other candidates over the weekend.”
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