Trump not on ballot but president influences Tuesday’s high-stakes primary

Virginia, one of only two states to hold gubernatorial elections this year, conducts high-profile primaries on Tuesday that may grab national attention.

Voters in Virginia, a competitive state in American political elections, will cast Democrat and Republican primary ballots for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and for state lawmakers in the House of Delegates. 

And while President Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot, his sweeping and controversial agenda has been a key part of the conversation on the Virginia campaign trail.

Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, better-known by its acronym DOGE, has been on a mission to chop government spending and cut the federal workforce.

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The moves by DOGE, which until last month was steered by Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, have been acutely felt in suburban Washington’s heavily populated Northern Virginia, with its large federal workforce.

“The policies of DOGE have hit northern Virginia hard,” Dave Richards, political science chair at the University of Lynchburg, noted.

Trump’s name and his policies have been front-and-center on the Virginia campaign trail in recent weeks. That’s fueled strong turnout in the Democratic Party contests in the 45 days of early voting leading up to primary day as the candidates have pledged to fight the president’s agenda.

“Over 189,000 Virginians cast their ballots early in the Democratic primaries. 189,000!!!!” the state Democratic Party touted in a social media post on the eve of primary day.

The healthy turnout comes despite there being no drama at the top of the ticket.

The race for governor has already been set, between Republican gubernatorial nominee Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger.

But the winner in November will make history as Virginia’s first female governor. And if Sears comes out on top, she’ll become the nation’s first Black woman to win election as governor. Virginia elected its first Black governor, L. Douglas Wilder, in 1989.

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Incumbent Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who has a large national profile, is prevented from running for re-election as Virginia’s constitution doesn’t allow sitting governors to seek consecutive terms.

Republicans have already decided their nominations for lieutenant governor and attorney general, so all the action down ballot is among the Democrats.

The GOP’s lieutenant governor nominee is former radio host John Reid, who, if elected, would be Virginia’s first openly gay lieutenant governor.

The six Democrats running to face off in November with Reid are, in alphabetical order, attorney Alex Bastani, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, chair of the Prince William County school board Babur Lateef, state Sen. Aaron Rouse, federal prosecutor and law professor Victor Salgado, and former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney.

The Republican nominee for attorney general is incumbent Jason Miyares. Two Democrats, former state lawmaker and former Washington, D.C., Assistant Attorney General Jay Jones and Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, are running to face off with Miyares in November.

While Republicans currently control all three statewide offices, Democrats hold slim majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. All 100 seats in the House of Delegates – which the Democrats control 51-49 – are up for grabs in November.

Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the non-partisan political handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, highlighted that “the gubernatorial race will really help set the tone for the other statewide races and the race for the House of Delegates.”

And Richards noted, “the Republican ticket is very diverse, and the results of the Democratic primary will determine how diverse the democratic ticket is.”

Virginia’s primaries are likely to grab attention, as it and New Jersey – which held primaries last week – are the only two states to hold gubernatorial showdowns in the year following a presidential election.

And the results are also seen as a precursor to the following year’s midterm elections, when Republicans will be defending their House and Senate majorities, and 36 states will hold elections for governor.

Republicans swept the elections for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general in Virginia four years ago, breaking a 12-year losing streak to the Democrats. 

And while Republicans haven’t carried the Commonwealth in a White House contest since 2004, Trump only lost the state by six points in last November’s presidential election, a four-point improvement from his 2020 defeat.

But Republicans will be facing historical headwinds this November. With only one exception since 1977, the party that holds the White House loses Virginia’s gubernatorial election.