China’s clout in the Middle East may not be as strong as Beijing thinks, as Iran’s terror-sanctioning regime – one of the CCP’s closer allies – faces its potential end, experts told Fox News Digital.
China does, however, remain a major factor in Iran’s energy market – which is otherwise sanctioned by the U.S. and much of the West, according to Steve Yates, a senior fellow in Asian Studies and security policy at the conservative Heritage Foundation.
“Iran has been a particular partner in the event that China has shielded Iran from sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies for decades, usually out of proliferation concerns and occasionally for other reasons,” said Yates, who has advised top U.S. officials on national security matters.
“And China has always been a weak spot in the viability of sanctions because China would continue, sometimes openly and obviously, and other times quietly and clandestinely, to continue the energy market flowing for Iran.”
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Whether the existential threat to Iran’s regime has a major effect on the U.S.-China relationship remains to be seen, Yates said.
“I think in some ways it’s theater – but theater that matters, in that Beijing, Moscow and Tehran have tried to be somewhat [the] core of a new axis that was balancing against the United States and trying to peel the global South and other places out … of our orbit.”
But China remains reliant on the U.S., particularly economically, so Western actions in the Middle East may give President Xi Jinping pause before jumping into the fray.
Gatestone Institute senior fellow Gordon Chang, a preeminent analyst on China and U.S.-China relations, said he doesn’t see a major offensive from Beijing in the cards if Iran falls – but does envision potential uncertainty if it doesn’t.
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“China has one military base in the region, in Djibouti, and it’s not really that big. And it’s surrounded by Western military bases, including one of ours. So, no, I don’t think the Chinese have the military capability to exert power,” Chang said. “They’ve got to get across the Indian Ocean, and we’re just not going to let them.”
He also said things move so fast diplomatically and otherwise in this realm of foreign policy that it can be tough to truly analyze the lay of the land on a certain day.
“This is sort of like the pre-World War I situation. “The reason why the assassination of a minor royalty figure [Archduke Franz Ferdinand] turned into conflict throughout Europe was because nobody knew how to manage a complex situation,” Chang said.
“Nobody knew who was going to be on whose side. And the situation deteriorated. That’s sort of like the situation we’ve got now, in effect. So it is a fluid situation.”
Xi is also in trouble at home, Chang said, an issue that could trump any CCP concern over the ultimate fate of the Ayatollah. Chang said there is conjecture about whether Xi will be out of power in as little as a few months, remain as a figurehead or just continue as is.
“We can see that he has lost great influence and maybe even control over the Chinese military, which is the most powerful faction in the Communist Party. . . . Because of that, his risk calculus, is very different than what we think it is.”
“And of course, for decades, we have always defined China’s interests in a way that is different than the way the Chinese define their interests. I mean, we’ve always said, well, it’s in their interest to be responsible to support the international system. Chinese don’t see it that way.”
The Chinese Navy is also dwarfed in capability by Western navies, he said.
He added, however, that if Israel or the U.S. fail in their efforts to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, that could lead China to believe the West is not infallible and will turn its attention to its own choice conquests.
“[That] is not inconceivable, then China might be emboldened to move against South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, whoever in its region,” Chang said.
“So, this could really be World War III in a sense,” he said, pointing out that there are already true wars on three continents – Europe (Ukraine/Russia), Asia (the skirmish between Pakistan and India) – and “insurgencies in North Africa that look like wars.”
“All we need is just one more war, and it does look like global conflict,” he said.
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