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This is cobbled together from a variety of sources, with a timeline of how the Senate will try to pass President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” this weekend, and the House will try to align next week.
Fox is told the Senate will likely not move to take a procedural vote to formally get on the bill until Friday. That will require 20 hours of debate/clock time run in the Senate once they get onto the bill. The procedural vote only needs a simple majority.
The 20 hours of debate/clock time is split. Democrats will probably burn all 10 of their hours. Republicans will use a few. So, the Senate probably begins its “vote-a-rama” on the bill late Friday night or into the wee hours of Saturday morning.
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A “vote-a-rama” is where the Senate takes hours and hours of consecutive roll call votes on the package.
It’s likely the Senate starts this lengthy voting sequence late Friday, early Saturday morning (meaning just after midnight) and continues until late Saturday, if not the early hours of Sunday morning.
It would culminate with passage of the bill in the Senate late Saturday or early Sunday.
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Not that it is impossible to figure out when this could happen. But, frankly, a final vote could come at any time of the day or night all weekend long – if not early Monday.
The most recent vote-a-rama ran just under ten hours. A 2021 vote-a-rama consumed 14 hours and 48 minutes, with the Senate considering a total of 40 amendments.
We believe this vote-a-rama might be on the longer end.
The question is whether a war powers resolution by Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., might delay starting the vote to get onto the “big, beautiful bill.” Kaine’s resolution may not come up until Friday.
Here’s the other wild card:
How fast can the House pivot to pass the bill and align with the Senate?
If the Senate OKs the bill on Saturday or Sunday, there is one scenario where the House tries to move very quickly and maybe even wraps it up late Sunday or in the wee hours of Monday morning. They don’t want members sitting around without much to do.
Also, I should point out that the “72-hour rule” to allow the House to read the bill before voting does not apply. The Senate is sending back to the House an “amendment” to the original House plan. Thus, the “72-hour rule” does not count under these circumstances.
However, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., may face political pressure to let members consider the bill for a day or two. That could potentially delay passage in the House until Tuesday or Wednesday.
But remember, this all centers around whether things go swimmingly. A host of outstanding issues remain. So, that could push back passage in both bodies.
Fox is told that the biggest holdup in the entire process is trying to massage the spending/spending cut numbers.
When asked what the single most complicated issue was, Fox was told its SALT, the reduction of state and local taxes for high-tax states.
Fox is told the Senate may try to go to the House level of “40,000” for the deduction, “if nothing else for optics.” But the key is if the Senate phases out the income cap to take advantage of that tax break. In other words, the Senate might try to place a ceiling on how much taxpayers can earn before qualifying for the SALT break.
But members of the SALT caucus signaled that’s not acceptable. They want the straight $40,000 deduction. There is currently a $10,000 deduction in the Senate bill. That is a non-starter for New York and California Republicans who are pushing for the substantial SALT deduction.
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