JD Vance poised to clinch victory for Trump’s landmark bill as GOP finalizes strategy

Vice President JD Vance could deliver the tiebreaking vote in the U.S. Senate for President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful, bill” should it fail to receive enough support from Republican lawmakers. 

Republicans are scrambling to reform and pass the measure ahead of Trump’s July 4 deadline after Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough’s determination Thursday that several Medicaid reforms in the sweeping tax and domestic policy package did not follow Senate rules and must be removed. 

As president of the Senate, the vice president casts a tiebreaking vote when a measure fails to receive majority support.

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There are 53 Republicans in the Senate, meaning three Republican senators could opt out of voting for the bill, and it could still pass with Vance’s support. 

Vance has previously cast tiebreaking votes in the Senate, including in January to confirm Trump’s pick for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, and on a measure in April to curb Trump’s ability to impose global tariffs. 

Vance’s office declined to provide comment to Fox News Digital.

Republican lawmakers who’ve historically voiced concerns about certain Medicaid provisions included in the “big, beautiful, bill” include senators Susan Collins of Maine, Josh Hawley of Missouri and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. These lawmakers have cautioned that the reforms would prove detrimental to rural hospitals in their states. 

Spokespeople for Collins, Hawley and Murkowski did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital. 

The domestic policy package also included provisions to beef up border security and would also make permanent the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act from Trump’s first term.

The White House’s Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought told lawmakers earlier this month failure to pass the measure would result in a 60% tax hike for Americans and would trigger a recession. 

As a result, Matt Wolking, who previously served as the deputy communications director for Trump’s 2020 campaign, said Senate Republicans will ultimately band together to approve the legislation to prevent the tax cuts from expiring. 

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“Senate Republicans don’t want to be responsible for the massive tax increase on the middle class that will occur if they fail to extend President Trump’s tax cuts. So, ultimately, they will get this done,” Wolking, currently with GOP consulting firm Axiom Strategies, said in a statement to Fox News Digital. 

“President Trump has a big asset in these negotiations with JD Vance, and whether he is needed to break a tie or not, the administration will have another major win under its belt heading into the midterm elections where the strength of the economy will be a big factor,” Wolking said. 

Earlier this month, Vance met with Republican senators to discuss the measure during a closed-door lunch and said afterward he was hopeful about the odds of passing the legislation on time. 

“I mean, look, I can’t make any promises. … I can’t predict the future, but I do think that we’re in a good place to get this done by the July 4 recess,” Vance told reporters June 17. 

Vance also told reporters that despite concerns from lawmakers, including Collins, regarding certain Medicaid provisions included in the measure, he would work to address any issues raised. Still, he said there was broad agreement within the party on reforming Medicaid to block access for illegal immigrants.

“They’re all very confident we’re eventually going to get there,” Vance said.

The House narrowly passed its version of the measure in May by a 215-214 margin, with two Republicans voting against the legislation. 

Trump urged lawmakers to get the legislation to the finish line Thursday, labeling the measure the “single-most important piece of border legislation ever to cross the floor of Congress.” 

“This is the ultimate codification of our agenda to — very simply, a phrase that’s been used pretty well by me over the past 10 years, but maybe even before that — make America great again,” Trump said at a “One, Big, Beautiful Event” at the White House Thursday.