Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi now place the odds of a U.S. recession this year at 21%, up slightly from 19% earlier Tuesday. That figure is still near the lowest level of the year, which was 17% on Jan. 17.
The figure signals growing optimism among investors and analysts about the nation’s economic resilience, even as it adjusts to the sweeping fiscal impacts of President Donald Trump’s expansive tax and spending legislation.
Meanwhile, users on the betting platform Polymarket also speculated the odds of the U.S. economy entering a recession at 22%.
NEW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS REPORT FINDS TARIFFS NOT CAUSING INFLATION
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity measured over a period of two consecutive quarters. Key characteristics of a recession include slides in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, rising unemployment, decreased consumer spending and a fall in industrial production.
Kalshi’s estimate also comes as Trump advances trade negotiations on the global stage, adding another layer of complexity to the economic outlook.
HASSETT SAYS THERE IS NO CHANCE US WILL ENTER A RECESSION
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has previously downplayed concerns of a recession as the White House works to broker a variety of trade deals.
Hassett told FOX Business that the U.S. will “100% not” enter a recession in 2025, citing strong job numbers.
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