Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday the central bank will look at alternate data sources to consider at its October meeting if upcoming economic data is not released as scheduled due to a potential government shutdown.
The government is slated to shut down at 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday if Congress fails to approve a funding extension. The House has passed a continuing resolution, but efforts have stalled in the Senate as Democrats push for continued funding of healthcare subsidies set to expire. The Labor Department would be included, and it said it would halt all economic data releases in the event of a partial shutdown.
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the best source of data that we have,” Goolsbee told FOX Business Network’s Edward Lawrence in an exclusive interview. “It pains me that we wouldn’t be getting official statistics at exactly a moment when we’re trying to figure out is the economy in transition.”
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The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release data on initial jobless claims on Thursday and September nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The consumer price index for September – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – is scheduled for release on Oct. 15.
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The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 28 and 29.
“Just recently, the Chicago Fed introduced the labor market indicators and what one of those is takes 11 different data sources, some of which are the official data but many of which are private sector and makes a real-time forecast of what the next unemployment rate would be,” Goolsbee said.
“So we will lean heavily on our hiring rate estimates, on our layoffs and other separations rate estimate and on our nowcast of the unemployment rate if we can’t get the official data.”
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