The ongoing government shutdown has disrupted the flow of economic data from federal agencies and the October jobs report is the latest closely watched report to be delayed due to the impasse.
Most workers at the Labor Department and other federal agencies responsible for producing economic reports have been furloughed since the shutdown began on Oct. 1. The impasse has extended into November, becoming the longest shutdown in U.S. history and pushing back more economic data reports in the process.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics was scheduled to release the October jobs report on Friday, but the agency hasn’t returned to its normal operations because of the shutdown.
October’s employment report is just the latest economic report to be delayed by the shutdown, as the September jobs report was due to be released just days after the shutdown began. The Commerce Department’s gross domestic product report as well as its personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) – the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge – have also been delayed.
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The Trump administration temporarily returned some BLS workers so that they could complete the September consumer price index (CPI) report, as the inflation data is used in calculating the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, which is legally required to be released before the end of October.
It remains unclear when lawmakers in Congress and President Donald Trump will reach an agreement to end the shutdown, or how quickly agencies could resume the publication of economic data releases – though the timelines from past shutdowns offer some insights into how quickly delayed reports could be published.
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The 2013 government shutdown prevented the release of that year’s September jobs report, which was due to be released on Oct. 4. After the shutdown ended on Oct. 17, the report was released less than a week later on Oct. 22.
A similar delay occurred in early 1996, when the December 1995 jobs report was supposed to be released in early January but was delayed until the middle of the month because of a shutdown.
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Goldman Sachs economists noted that based on the experience of the 2013 government shutdown, they would expect that if the government reopens in mid-November, the September jobs report would be released a few days after the shutdown ends.
However, they said that the October jobs report wouldn’t be expected until early December in that scenario.
The Goldman report also noted that after past shutdowns, the following month’s data releases were delayed by about a week to allow staff more time to process the data. If the shutdown ends in the next few weeks, that could cause the November jobs report to be delayed beyond the scheduled release date of Dec. 5.
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