Tax filing season officially opened on Monday for Americans to begin filing their returns for 2025 and policymakers are signaling that tax refunds are expected to be $1,000 larger than a year ago.
Taxpayers will have between Jan. 26 and April 15 to file their 2025 tax returns or to request an extension until October, and the lawmakers who drafted the tax reform package known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) that became law last year are forecasting a bumper year for tax refunds.
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo., said this month that American taxpayers are projected to receive an additional $91 billion in tax refunds this year in what’s expected to be a record-setting $370 billion refund season.
“Families can expect an average of $1,000 more in their refund compared to last year,” Smith said in a news release. “For a family with two kids making $73,000, they will have zero tax liability. Bigger refunds mean more money to cover groceries, doctors’ bills, school supplies and summer activities – all the essentials that became unaffordable under Joe Biden.”
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Smith went on to tout the provisions in the OBBBA that created new, temporary tax relief that will be retroactive to eligible Americans’ 2025 incomes.
“Republicans in Congress are focused on making life as affordable for working families as fast as possible. That’s why we made the tax relief in the Working Families Tax Cuts – no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, a bigger standard deduction and Child Tax Credit, and permanent lower tax rates – retroactive to 2025 income,” Smith said.
Trump administration officials have offered similar estimates for the size of Americans’ tax refunds this filing season.
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC10 Philadelphia last month that, “I think we’re going to see $100 [billion]-$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000 and $2,000 per household.”
Bessent said that the timing of the tax cut’s enactment last summer didn’t give Americans the opportunity to change their withholding for the remainder of the year, which will contribute to the “very large refunds” that will be distributed.
President Donald Trump himself said at a Cabinet meeting in December that this tax filing season is “projected to be the largest tax refund season ever.”
Large tax refunds could help households shore up their finances as Americans continue to face high prices for everyday goods like groceries, housing and healthcare amid the cost increases of recent years.
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IRS data for the 2025 tax filing season showed that the average refund increased to $3,167 as of December, which was a gain of 0.9% from the 2024 filing season.
Over 103.8 million tax refunds were issued in the last tax filing season, which represented a 1% decrease from the prior year. The total amount refunded was nearly $329 billion in last year’s tax season, essentially unchanged after a 0.1% decrease from the prior year.
The overwhelming majority of refunds were issued by direct deposit, with over 94.3 million refunds and more than $304 billion disbursed back to taxpayers through that process.
After taxpayers file their 2025 tax returns this year, they will be able to use the IRS’ “Where’s My Refund?” tool that provides information about refund status. The tool is generally available about 24 hours after submitting a current-year return via e-filing, or four weeks after filing a paper return.
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