With grocery budgets still under pressure, consumers can still stretch their dollars and keep holiday meal costs down, according to Wells Fargo’s latest Thanksgiving report.
The report led by chief agricultural economist Michael Swanson estimated that shoppers who choose all private-label items for their Thanksgiving meal will spend about $80 for a feast serving 10 people. Those who stick to name brands will pay nearly $100, according to the report, which was developed in collaboration with Robin Wenzel, head of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, and Courtney Schmidt, the institute’s sector manager.
“The turkey industry takes orders from the supermarkets months in advance for Thanksgiving. It looks like producers picked the right number of birds to prepare, and the price reflects the lower cost of feeding turkeys in a competitive market,” the report said.
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“Consumers are being more discerning and value-focused this holiday season, which means the typical Thanksgiving basket may look a bit different from prior years,” Arun Sundaram, senior vice president of equity research at CFRA Research, said.
But with retailers stepping up promotions and discounts, Sundaram said shoppers “should still be able to put together a Thanksgiving dinner at an appealing price point.”
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A slew of grocers, including Walmart, Target, Aldi and Amazon, have unveiled their Thanksgiving meal deals ahead of the big feast. Each retailer is aiming to undercut competitors by offering a basket of items for a traditional Thanksgiving dinner at a steep discount to lure in customers forced to cut back discretionary spending.
Sundaram and Wells Fargo also noted that consumers can sidestep some of the priciest food categories this year. The items seeing the sharpest inflation – beef, coffee and confectionery – aren’t central to a traditional Thanksgiving meal, according to Sundaram. Wells Fargo added that beef and eggs remain key drivers of the recent increase in the consumer price index for food-at-home.
Turkey
Retail prices for turkey this holiday are down 3.7% from a year ago for national brands, according to the Wells Fargo report.
Vegetables
National name-brand frozen vegetables are down 15% compared with a year ago. Meanwhile, private label frozen vegetables rose 0.8%, indicating that national brands have been pressured to offer more value to get their share of the sales, according to Wells Fargo.
Prices for fresh vegetables will be “similar or slightly higher” than for frozen vegetables.
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Sides
Private brand dinner rolls declined 22% from a year ago, underscoring a “softness in consumer demand for traditional bread products,” according to the report.
Stuffing for the turkey, prepared gravy mix and fresh cranberries dropped between 3% and 4% from last year. These categories are being pressured to drop their price due to more supply and private label price competition, according to Wells Fargo.
National brand pumpkin pies also dropped 3%.
Wells Fargo advised consumers to opt for private label options when buying stuffing, dinner rolls and gravy mix, but to stick with national brands for fresh cranberries and pumpkin pie.
Prepackaged salad mix rose by 0.3% and whipping cream rose 3%, in line with the dairy category as a whole, which is up 1.4% year over year, according to the report.
Mashed potatoes
Prepared mashed potatoes saw a price drop of 1.5% from last year due to a better potato crop and competition.
Beverages
Wells Fargo reported that the beer sector is up 3% from a year ago, even as the category has faced some slowdowns in consumption over time. However, the wine category as a whole is down 0.1% from last year.
For soft drinks, prices for a 12-ounce can fell 3% from last year, but prices for 2-liter bottles are up 7% over the same period.
Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief consumer finance analyst, told FOX Business that the report is proof that people have more power over their money than they think they do.
“Some of the simplest actions can pay real dividends when it comes to the fight against inflation,” Schulz said. “Simply taking the time to compare costs among different retailers or even among different brands sold by the same retailer can really make a difference in extending your family’s holiday budget.”
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