The so-called affordability crisis is nearly overshadowing massive Wall Street betting on whether the Fed will cut its target rate a quarter point at its next meeting December 9 and 10 — because some Fed heads have been mouthing off about inflation and buying into the lefty media’s attack on President Trump. In the last few trading sessions, investors have been selling because they think there will be no rate cut. Baloney.
First of all, grocery prices under Mr. Trump have barely budged despite a couple of highly publicized outliers. Overall, grocery prices are up only 2.1% at an annual rate. The grocery problem guy was Joe Biden, where grocery prices jumped 5.4% annually. Cumulatively for the whole period, grocery prices under Joe Biden were up a whopping 23%. But in Trump’s first 8 months, they were up a minuscule 1.4%.
And as Mr. Trump said yesterday at the McDonald’s Action Summit, some grocery prices are already falling. He’s right.
In general, inflation is coming down, and that, according to Fed Governor Chris Waller, an influential voice on the board, is a key reason why the central bank will cut its target rate by one quarter of a percent. He’s also worried about some recession creep in the job market.
And of course, Democrats sabotaged Trump’s fourth quarter with a 43-day shutdown that will take money out of Q4, though it will be recouped next year.
Let’s make this as simple as possible. To keep inflation down, first shrink the Fed’s balance sheet and reduce their target rates. That will keep the M2 money supply growing at a modest 5%, where it is now. Counter-inflationary. Second, supply side tax cuts and deregulation and drill baby drill produce more goods and energy at lower prices. Third, get rid of non-essential tariffs, like coffee, bananas, fruit, meat, nuts, and others.
Stick to the big stuff, the important stuff, the national security stuff. Forget about stuff we don’t really grow much of. Mr. Trump did just this, and the results are immediately positive.
Meanwhile, I want to add to this, profits are the mother’s milk of stock and the lifeblood of the economy. Estimates for next year are up 12% for the S&P 500. That’s a big number. That’s why folks should buy the dip.
And you know what? Sometime very early next year, we will have an economy growing around 4% with an inflation rate below 2% accompanied by historically mild interest rates. Last time I saw that was Ronald Reagan’s City on the Hill.
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