Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi place the odds of President Donald Trump selecting Kevin Hassett to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at 48%, a 27 percentage point increase this week.
Kevin Warsh follows as the next most likely contender, with Kalshi bettors assigning him a 29% chance of taking the top role at the world’s most powerful central bank.
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The revelation comes on the heels of Trump’s comments on CNBC, saying that when it comes to the Fed chair job, “both Kevins are very good.”
“He’s very good,” Trump said, referring to Warsh. “Sometimes they’re all very good, until you put them in there, and then they don’t do so good,” Trump said, adding “I think he’s a very good guy. I’d say Kevin and Kevin, both Kevins are very good.”
Hassett, Trump’s top economic adviser, has been a loyal defender of Trump’s economic agenda and currently serves as the director of the White House’s National Economic Council. Hassett held two roles during the first Trump administration and advised Trump on economic policy during the 2024 presidential campaign.
Warsh, Hassett’s contender with deep economic credentials, joined the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in 2006. At the time, the ex-Morgan Stanley banker was the youngest person to serve on the board.
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He was among the leading candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in 2018 before Trump ultimately appointed Powell to the role. More recently, the former Morgan Stanley banker was considered a top pick for Treasury secretary in Trump’s second administration before former hedge fund chief Scott Bessent was nominated.
In step with Trump, both Hassett and Warsh have called on Powell, whose term ends in May, to lower interest rates. Trump, who appointed Powell to the role in 2017, has repeatedly called for the Fed to lower the federal funds target rate, which he says could save the nation “hundreds of billions of dollars.” Meanwhile, Powell has kept the central bank’s key borrowing rate target within a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, adopting a cautious approach amid the potential economic impact of Trump’s tariffs.
Last month, following the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate meeting, Powell announced that the Fed would leave the rate unchanged, the fifth time this year the Fed has kept the interest rate steady.
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Last week, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced she would resign from her post, leaving an open seat on the panel that guides the nation’s monetary policy. The seven members who make up the Fed Board are known as governors. They are nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate.
Trump called Kugler’s exit “a pleasant surprise,” as it gave him an opportunity to install a new governor more aligned with his economic agenda. The new Fed governor could eventually succeed Powell next May.
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