Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting that the federal government will shut down this weekend.
According to Kalshi’s market data, traders assign a 75% chance that the shutdown begins on Saturday, up 64 percentage points over the last two days.
Trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on the market, stands at just over $8.6 million.
SENATE DEMOCRATS THREATEN SHUTDOWN BY BLOCKING DHS FUNDING AFTER MINNESOTA ICE SHOOTING
Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket place the odds at 79%, up 70 percentage points over the same period.
About $8.5 million has been wagered on that bet.
While odds on these markets don’t serve as formal forecasts, they do provide a real-time snapshot of trader expectations.
Since 1976, the U.S. government has shut down 21 times.
The longest shutdown, a 43-day standoff, was triggered by Senate Democrats who demanded that Republicans and President Donald Trump negotiate a solution to expiring Obamacare subsidies.
The latest revelation comes as Senate Democrats threaten to withhold Department of Homeland Security funding following the death of a second U.S. citizen in Minnesota.
On Saturday, 37-year-old Alex Jeffrey Pretti, a Minneapolis nurse, was fatally shot by a U.S. Border Patrol agent during a federal immigration enforcement operation.
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officials said Pretti approached agents while armed with a 9mm pistol and two magazines and “violently resisted” when officers tried to disarm him, prompting one agent to fire.
He was shot several times and pronounced dead at the scene. State officials later confirmed Pretti had a lawful permit to carry the firearm.
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