Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting that the nation’s highest court is unlikely to rule in favor of President Donald Trump‘s tariffs.
Traders on Kalshi now give only a 25% chance that the Supreme Court will side with Trump’s tariff plan, down 20 points after oral arguments signaled potential skepticism from the justices.
The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, is a little more than $1 million.
TRUMP DEFENDS TARIFFS, SAYS US HAS BEEN ‘THE KING OF BEING SCREWED’ BY TRADE IMBALANCE
Polymarket mirrors that sentiment, with odds also at 23%, down 15 points over the same period of time. The trading volume on Polymarket is a little north of $1.1 million.
Kalshi and Polymarket let users bet real money on everything from politics and economic policy to sports and pop culture, transforming public sentiment into tradable market odds.
TRUMP SAYS TARIFF REVENUE TO FUND $2K CHECKS FOR AMERICANS, LOWER NATION’S $38T DEBT
The shift in prediction market sentiment comes as Trump’s trade policies face renewed legal scrutiny, with the Supreme Court last week hearing arguments over whether he had the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs and whether those actions violated the Constitution’s separation of powers.
That review follows an Aug. 29 federal appeals court ruling that Trump exceeded his authority by invoking emergency powers to impose new tariffs on imported goods, finding that such power rests with Congress or within existing trade laws.
Trump has argued that tariff revenue could be used to fund $2,000 checks for Americans and help reduce the nation’s $38 trillion debt. He has also previously warned that the U.S. would be “virtually defenseless against other countries” and has called the case “life or death for our country.”
The Supreme Court is still weighing the future of Trump’s trade agenda and the tariffs at issue.
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