Traders on prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on the odds of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani‘s deportation by the end of the year.
It’s considered a long shot, but the fact that traders are wagering on it at all is striking.
Mamdani, elected Nov. 4 to lead the nation’s largest city, steps into power with a mandate to transform New York and a growing chorus of detractors watching closely.
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Among them is President Donald Trump, who has questioned Mamdani’s citizenship. Born in Uganda, Mamdani became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2018.
On Kalshi, the implied odds of Mamdani’s deportation have fallen to 3%, down from 8.5% on Nov. 5.
The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, sits a little over $10,000.
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Meanwhile on Polymarket, traders assign a 1% chance that Mamdani will face deportation with a little more than $5,753 waged on this market.
Kalshi and Polymarket let users bet real money on everything from politics and economic policy to sports and pop culture, transforming public sentiment into tradable market odds.
Mamdani, a progressive upstart from Queens, has placed affordability at the center of his agenda for New York City.
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Throughout his campaign, he has proposed measures such as free bus service, city-owned grocery stores and rent freezes.
Some of his more ambitious ideas have rattled Wall Street, drawing some of his fiercest critics. The clash underscores a widening divide between progressive visions for the city and the financial sector that has long powered it.
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