By Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee
LONDON (Reuters) -Global stocks were at their highest in a month on Tuesday, taking cues from a Wall Street rally driven by expectations the Federal Reserve could offer further hints of imminent rate cuts and easing recession worries.
With the data calendar relatively light across major economies this week, all eyes are on Wednesday’s release of the Fed’s July meeting minutes and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday for clues on the outlook for U.S. rates.
Fed policymakers have in recent days signalled possible easing in September, priming markets for a similar tone from Powell and other speakers at the annual meeting of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
“Should they acknowledge the U.S. economy’s disinflation path, it will confirm a September rate cut,” said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie.
“Markets will likely turn on the extent to which Powell opens the door for the possibility of a 50 basis point cut at one of the next three FOMC meetings.”
Futures markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut from the Fed in September, with around a 25% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
In Europe, the index hit its highest level since August 1 but was last little changed on the day, having recovered all the losses seen after a weak U.S. labour market report prompted worries about the health of the economy.
“Since the report, we’ve had number after number after number suggesting that a recession in the U.S. economy is not around the corner,” said Josephine Cetti, chief investment strategist at Nordea, citing strong U.S. retail sales, upbeat business surveys, improving jobless claims numbers and a benign inflation reading.
“The recession fears have been dampened over the last couple of weeks and the market has rebounded a lot,” Cetti added.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit a one-month high before giving up some gains to trade 0.3% higher.
225 rose to its strongest level in over two weeks, closing up 1.8%, but Chinese blue-chips fell 0.7% on continued worries over the country’s gloomy economic outlook. Hong Kong’s edged down 0.3%.
U.S. stock futures edged up, with and Nasdaq futures advancing 0.1%. Both indexes have gained for eight straight days, the longest positive streak this year.
That left global stocks 0.1% higher, at their strongest level in over a month.
FED EXPECTATIONS DENT DOLLAR
Expectations of a dovish Fed outcome this week left the dollar struggling at an over seven-month low against the euro, which peaked at $1.1089 on Tuesday. Sterling touched a one-month high and last bought $1.3012.
The was last at 101.79, having fallen to its lowest since early January of 101.76 earlier in the session.
Against the yen, the dollar was down 0.1% at 146.45, with traders looking to Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s appearance in parliament on Friday, where he is set to discuss the central bank’s decision last month to raise interest rates.
The BOJ’s hawkish tilt had injected huge volatility into markets as investors aggressively unwound yen-funded carry trades, rocking stocks globally.
The market turmoil has since abated after BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida earlier this month played down the chance of further rate hikes in the near term.
“With markets calming, Ueda may change tack and return to talking about normalising interest rates,” said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:).
In commodities, oil prices reversed earlier losses, with last up 0.4% at $77.96 a barrel. rose 0.2% to $74.51 per barrel. [O/R]
touched another record high of $2525.24 an ounce, drawing support from a broadly weaker dollar and on expectations of imminent U.S. rate cuts. [GOL/]
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