Harris closes in on Trump in election betting markets

Vice President Kamala Harris has gained significant ground on former President Trump in the election betting markets in the week since taking over at the top of the Democratic ticket.

Trump entered Sunday with a 54.6% to win the election, while Harris came in at 39.2%, according to the Real Clear Politics betting average, a spread of a little over 15.2 percentage points.

While the market still favors Trump, the 15-point gap represents a significant shift over the last week. On July 20, the days before President Biden announced his decision to drop out of the race, Trump had a 61% chance to win the election, the Real Clear Politics average showed, while Harris came in with an 18.2% chance and Biden had a 9.5% chance, an almost 43-point gap between Trump and his closest competitor.

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A similar trend has played out on PredictIt, a New Zealand-based prediction market that offers “shares” of political outcomes, with Trump shares currently selling for 54 cents on the site and Harris shares selling for 48 cents. Since shares on the platform are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, the price of the share is essentially the percentage chance an outcome will happen, meaning Trump has a 54% chance to win the election.

Harris has gained significant ground on Trump over the last week on PredictIt, the platform’s historical trends show. On July 20, Trump shares were selling for 64 cents, Harris, 27 cents, and Biden 15 cents, meaning the price to bet on Harris has closed from 37 cents to six cents over the last week.

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The tightening betting markets come as polls continue to show what could be a potentially close race between Trump and Harris. According to the Real Clear Politics national average, Trump holds just a 1.7 point lead over Harris in the polls. Polls in the main battleground states have been more sparse, but also show a tight race.