Vice President Kamala Harris being elevated to the top of the Democratic ticket has helped the party regain more steady control of at least one traditional blue state and may have also helped improve the national outlook.
Harris leads former President Trump 53-39 among likely voters in the state of New York, according to a Siena College Research Institute poll released Tuesday.
While the 14-point lead would typically be considered narrow in a state that Democratic presidential nominees have won by as much as 30 points in recent cycles, it paints an improving picture over the prospects of President Biden, who had held leads of only 8 to 10 points in previous versions of the Siena College poll.
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“The landscape has changed since the last Siena College poll. The change at the top of the Democratic ticket has had a noticeable, while not dramatic, effect on the horserace. Harris has the support of 86% of Democrats, up from the 75% support Biden had in June. And while independent voters support Trump over Harris 47-40%, they supported Trump over Biden 45-28%,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a poll press release. “Harris leads with Black voters 81-11%, up from Biden’s 59-29% lead in June.”
Harris is helped by having better approval numbers in the solidly blue state compared to both Biden and Trump, with Harris coming in at a 53% favorable, while 43% of respondents view the vice president unfavorably. Trump has only garnered favorability ratings hovering between 37% to 39% in the poll, while Biden’s June rating was underwater at 42-53 in June.
“Among all the presidential candidates that are likely to be on New York’s ballot, Harris is the only one with a positive favorability rating,” Greenberg said. “And looking at the race if it is a six-way election, Harris’ lead falls slightly from 14 points to 12 points. At the moment, 11% of voters – and 19% of independents – say they will vote for a minor party candidate.”
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The poll in the solidly blue state, which has not gone to a Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan’s landslide win in 1984, comes as Harris has closed on Trump in national polls since taking over for Biden at the top of the ticket.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average on Tuesday, Harris now holds a slim lead nationally over Trump. That lead represents a dramatic shift over the outlook the day before Biden dropped out of the race, when Trump held a three-point lead over the incumbent president.
Betting markets have also tightened significantly since Biden’s decision to drop out of the race, with the Real Clear Politics Betting Average showing Trump with a 52% chance to win the race and Harris with a 46.3% chance.
That number compares favorably to the betting odds a week before Biden’s decision to drop out, when Trump held a 66.2% chance compared to Biden’s 18% and Harris’ 7.3%.
The Siena College Research Institute poll was conducted between July 28 and Aug. 1, surveying 1,199 likely voters in New York and having a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.
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