President Biden’s decision to drop out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris’ rise to the top of the ticket have thrown the state of the race into question and possibly shifted the battleground strategy.
Biden was trailing former President Donald Trump nationally in the Real Clear Politics polling average and the seven major swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but underlying data could reveal what Harris might do to change that.
While polls showed Biden holding his own among older, white working-class voters, the president was starting to lose his grasp on Black and Hispanic voters, a key demographic for Democrats. Harris, on the other hand, has recently been outperforming Biden among Black voters, indicating there is room for her to gain ground on Trump in a close election.
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According to one Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted last month, Harris held a 67% favorability rating among Black voters, compared to 23% who had an unfavorable view of the vice president. Biden, meanwhile, came in with a 63% favorable rating, compared to 31% who held an unfavorable view of the president.
An NBC News poll conducted earlier this month revealed similar results when pitting both Biden and Harris against Trump, with Biden beating Trump 69% to 12% among Black voters, a 57-point lead, while Harris led the former president 78% to 14%, a 64-point advantage.
When Biden was still in the race, most of the swing state attention was given to the so-called “Blue Wall” states in the upper Midwest of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. However, Harris’ strength among Black voters could lead the vice president to look south towards Georgia and North Carolina as opportunities to close the gap.
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According to 2020 census data, Georgia and North Carolina have a Black population of 31% and 20.5% respectively, far more than the populations of Michigan (13.7%), Pennsylvania (10.9%), and Wisconsin (6.4%). On the other hand, those states in the upper Midwest have a higher share of older White voters, a demographic in which Biden was outperforming Harris.
Polling of a matchup between Trump and Harris is so far sparse, especially in battleground states, but there are some early indications that Harris may look south for help. One Landmark Communications poll, which was conducted Tuesday, shows Trump with just a one point lead over Harris in Georgia, a smaller advantage than most of the polling had previously shown the former president enjoyed in a matchup against Biden.
While winning both Georgia and North Carolina would likely not be enough to put Harris over the top, her ability to put them in her column would open up several more viable paths to victory. Without them, Harris would likely need to win all of the other five swing states in order to get to 270 electoral votes.
The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to a Fox News request for comment.
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