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Why doesn’t Hermes just produce more bags and then everyone can have a Birkin? That’s basically the argument of people pressing President Donald Trump to declare a housing emergency.
The fact is there’s plenty of housing, just not in the most desirable neighborhoods. Population growth is slowing, deportations are increasing and new home construction already outpaces family creation. The shortage is a myth created by activists so they can force residential living patterns to conform to DEI dogma.
A simple calculation proves it. The Census Bureau collects annual data on both the number of households and the available housing stock. The latest data shows 131.3 million households and 146.5 million housing units, an excess supply of over 15 million units.
Activists cannot deny the excess so instead, they argue that it is not enough.
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A well-functioning housing market has a natural vacancy rate. Just as labor markets need unemployment for efficient job matching, housing markets need vacancies for buyer-seller alignment, renovations and seasonal use.
Activists say that rate should be 12% instead of the current 10%, and to hit that target an additional 1 million units are needed. But they are cherry-picking the baseline rate. Census data tracked since 1965 shows vacancy rates have fluctuated wildly, ranging from 8.3% to 14.5%. There is no stable “natural rate.” Today’s 10% rate falls well within this historical range. When you stop using artificially high assumptions, the shortage disappears entirely.
Perhaps anticipating this, activists also argue that demand is higher than census data shows. First, they claim construction has fallen behind historical trends, from 1.5 million units annually in 1968-2000 to 1.23 million since 2001, creating a cumulative deficit. Second, they argue for massive pent-up demand, claiming millions of people would form separate households if housing were cheaper, using statistical models to estimate 3-5 million “missing” households.
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Both arguments assume demographic conditions that no longer exist. America has transitioned from rapid population growth of over 1% annually before 2000 to a more stable 0.5% today, projected to reach 0.1% by 2055. The next 30 years will add 23 million people versus 70 million in the prior 30 years, reflecting lower birth rates and longer lifespans. Deaths will exceed births by 2038 as the population matures. Meanwhile, the current administration targets deporting one million people annually, a figure not included in Census projections that assume stable immigration.
Like Birkin bags, the real problem isn’t supply, it’s that people want exclusive neighborhoods, and no amount of construction changes that reality. What’s really going on here is that activists are manufacturing a housing crisis in order to impose a DEI regime on where people choose to live.
This is a corruption of the Fair Housing Act (FHA), which was focused on equality of opportunity not results. The bill did aim to disrupt segregated living patterns but only through the narrow mechanism of eliminating overt housing discrimination. In particular, restrictive covenants, redlining and explicit racial barriers.
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As the legislative history records, the goal was to ensure families could live “where they wish and where they can afford,” acknowledging that financial capacity remained a valid constraint on housing choice.
Today’s activists have abandoned that sensible framework. Instead, they want to eliminate disparities in living patterns by lowering community standards through government coercion. Their chief target is local zoning laws, which serve the important function of maintaining community character. It’s why Washington, D.C., which bans skyscrapers, doesn’t look like Manhattan.
New York City’s Economic Development Corporation exemplifies this approach, scolding neighborhoods like the Upper East Side, SoHo and the West Village for “restrictive land use regulations” that limit density. They explicitly note that “Community Districts producing the least affordable housing are disproportionately white.” Their demographic focus reveals the true agenda.
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The Obama administration weaponized this logic through HUD’s Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing rule, forcing towns that accepted federal funding to eliminate zoning laws and to provide detailed reports on racial demographics. The effort had an important political dimension. By forcing high-density, low-income housing into suburban communities, activists aimed to flip red areas blue.
President Trump recognized the stakes in his first term, and tasked a White House team led by John McEntee to eliminate the rule, which they did in 14 days. Biden reinstated it, but HUD Secretary Scott Turner wisely eliminated it again soon after taking office.
Unfortunately, some Republicans and Libertarians have fallen for the housing shortage hoax and still don’t realize that eliminating sensible neighborhood standards like zoning are a stalking horse for imposing DEI quotas. This is a problem because housing activists continue to push their radical agenda aggressively at the state level.
In 2021, Massachusetts passed a controversial law forcing the 177 towns along the commuter rail line to change their suburban zoning laws to permit high-density low-income housing. The bill was drafted to look optional and incentive-based, but officials are enforcing it as mandatory. Similar efforts are afoot nationwide, amplified by liberal columnists like Paul Krugman calling for “increasing population density,” meaning eliminating suburban single-family zoning.
Democrats have brought DEI quotas to every institution in America. Your neighborhood is next. That’s the real housing crisis.
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Paige Bronitsky is a property attorney who served as a deputy assistant secretary at HUD and as a White House senior advisor in the first Trump administration. Follow @PaigeBronitsky.
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