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The Senate Republican campaign chair has a stark warning for his party as the GOP defends its 53-47 majority in the chamber in this year’s midterm elections.
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Tim Scott, pointing to a ballot box deficit the GOP’s facing in the latest Fox News national poll, said it could impact specific Senate races this year.
And Scott said the toughest challenge may be in Maine, where longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for re-election for a sixth six-year term in the blue-leaning northern New England state.
The straight talk from Scott, at a closed-door meeting earlier this week with fellow GOP senators, comes as Republicans, as the party in power in the nation’s capital, face traditional political headwinds in the midterms. And the GOP is also facing a rough political climate, with President Donald Trump‘s approval ratings remaining underwater while Democrats are energized as they work to win back the House majority and possibly recapture the Senate.
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While the NRSC remains optimistic they can not only defend but expand their majority, the GOP will be playing defense in half a dozen key races.
Here’s a look at the most vulnerable Republican Senate seats up for grabs in the midterms.
Maine
Collins is the only Republican senator running for re-election this year in a state that then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried in her 2024 presidential election defeat to Trump.
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And Collins has seen a deterioration of her poll numbers among Mainers from her last re-election six years ago.
But Collins, who has long been a top target of the rival Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has proven tough to beat.
Complicating the Democrats’ push to flip the seat is a competitive primary between two-term Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who has the tacit backing of longtime Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and the DSCC, and veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner, who is running to the left of Mill and who is backed by progressive champion Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
North Carolina
Republicans are defending an open seat in the southeastern battleground state, with GOP Sen. Thom Tillis retiring at the end of this year.
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Democrats landed their top recruit when former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper launched a Senate campaign last summer. Cooper enjoys tons of name ID in North Carolina and is 6-0 when running statewide races.
Republicans are rallying around former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Michael Whatley, who has the president’s backing.
The race is expected to be one of the most expensive and competitive Senate showdowns this year.
Ohio
Democrats scored another major recruiting victory when former longtime Sen. Sherrod Brown announced he would challenge Republican Sen. Jon Husted.
A former lieutenant governor, Husted was appointed to the Senate a year ago after then-Sen. JD Vance stepped down to serve as vice president.
Ohio, once a premiere general election battleground, has turned red over the past decade, and Democrats view Brown as their only competitive candidate in the race to serve the final two years of Vance’s term.
Brown lost re-election in 2024 by roughly four points while Trump carried Ohio by 11 points.
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Similar to North Carolina, the showdown is expected to be very expensive and competitive.
Alaska
Democrats were given a big boost in the red-leaning state when former Rep. Mary Peltola announced last month that she would challenge GOP incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Peltola lost re-election last year in the at-large district that covers the entire state by three points, while Trump carried Alaska by 11 points.
Iowa
Republicans are defending an open seat in Iowa, a onetime swing state that’s shifted to the right over the past decade.
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But the GOP has rallied around Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is backed by Trump, in the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
Hinson, a former local TV news anchor who flipped a Democratic-held seat in 2020, is seen as a rising star in the party.
Democrats have a contested primary that includes state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian, state Sen. Zach Wahls and military veteran Nathan Sage.
Texas
Longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas is in the middle of a competitive and combustible GOP nomination battle against state Attorney Gen. Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.
Trump, to date, has stayed neutral in the primary, which will be held early next month.
If neither Cornyn, Paxton, nor Hunt win a majority of the vote next month, a runoff will be held in May.
Cornyn enjoys the backing of Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the NRSC, which worries that the seat would be vulnerable if Paxton, who has plenty of political baggage, wins the primary.
The Democrats, who are eyeing the seat in the right-leaning state, have a competitive contest for their nomination between progressive firebrand and vocal Trump critic Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star in the party.
GOP on offense
While playing defense, the NRSC is also eyeing three Democratic-held Senate seats.
The GOP’s aiming to flip open seats in battleground Michigan, where Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, and swing state New Hampshire, where longtime Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is ending her long career, in which she made history as the first woman elected governor and senator.
Republicans are also eyeing battleground Georgia, where they view first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff as the most vulnerable Democrat seeking re-election this year.
The NRSC is also spotlighting the open Senate seat in blue-leaning Minnesota, where Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is retiring.
Former longtime sportscaster Michele Tafoya is being backed by the NRSC as she runs for the GOP nomination.
Some Republicans are calling last weekend’s double-digit shellacking in a special state Senate election in Texas in a district Trump carried by 17 points in 2024 a wake up call.
The stunning ballot box setback for Republicans, coming amid backlash over the Trump administration’s unprecedented crackdown on illegal immigration, is further energizing Democrats as they aim to win back congressional majorities.
The victory in Texas was the Democrats’ latest win or over performance in a slew of elections since Trump returned to power in the White House a year ago, as the party stays laser focused on the issue of affordability amid persistent inflation.
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“The White House needs to focus less on foreign policy and immigration and more on affordability to improve our chances in the midterms,” Dan Eberhart, an oil drilling chief executive officer and a prominent Republican donor and bundler, told Fox News Digital.
And Eberhart, pointing to some key Senate races, said he’s worried about “the money game.”
“We’re woefully behind in Georgia. We’re behind in North Carolina. I think that in Texas we’re going to have somebody limp out of a runoff,” he cautioned.
Thune, speaking to reporters this week following the NRSC briefing, said that “the Democrats are targeting a number of our incumbents. And so we’ve got some races that are going to be expensive and hard fought in places like Maine and North Carolina.”
But Thune added, “We feel really good about… where our Senate races are.” And he emphasized that “incumbents in our conference are seasoned veterans who will outwork any of their opponents.”
Meanwhile, DSCC Chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand told Fox News Digital last month that “President Trump is creating a toxic agenda that’s harming people.”
And Gillibrand emphasized she’s “optimistic that we have a shot to take back the majority.”
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