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Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., was ebullient Tuesday afternoon.
The South Dakota Republican just concluded a lengthy lunch meeting with fellow GOPers and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about the Big, Beautiful Bill.
“Good afternoon. Everybody having fun yet?” Thune asked the Congressional press corps as he approached the microphone in the Ohio Clock Corridor of the Capitol for his weekly exchange with reporters.
“Ask us around 3:45 Sunday morning,” suggested yours truly.
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If you are an insomniac…
Or don’t want to see the National Symphony Orchestra Pops perform Dolly Parton’s musical canon at the Kennedy Center…
Or you don’t have tickets to see the Savannah Bananas play at Nats Park this weekend…
The U.S. Senate may be the place for you.
Action on the Big, Beautiful Bill could happen at any time of the day or night this weekend.
The Senate is attempting to pass the Big, Beautiful Bill sometime on Saturday or Sunday. Maybe even early Monday.
Presuming Senate Republicans can pass the bill.
“If the bill is going to pass, do you expect that you at least have two or three members on your side who would vote no?” I asked Thune.
“Could be,” replied Thune.
“Why?” I countered.
“Well, we’ve got a lot of very independent thinking senators who have reasons and things that they’d like to have in this bill that would, in their view, make it stronger,” answered Thune. “Hopefully when push comes to shove and everybody has to say yes or no, we’ll get the number of votes that we need.”
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There’s more political pushing and shoving in the U.S. Senate than there is in a line of fourth graders waiting for the water fountain after recess. And senators may advance beyond pushing and shoving to actual fighting as Republicans grouse about the bill’s contents.
It’s about the math. Senate Republicans can still lose three votes and pass the bill with a tie-breaking vote by Vice President Vance. Fox was told that the bill was in trouble if there are ten potential noes now. But if the universe of prospective nays is only five, they can probably whittle that down enough to pass the bill.
Here are the GOP senators worth keeping an eye on because of possible problems they could have with particular provisions in the legislation:
Sens. Rand Paul, R-Ky., Ron Johnson, R-Wisc., Rick Scott, R-Fla., Josh Hawley, R-Mo., Thom Tillis, R-N.C., Mike Lee, R-Utah, John Kennedy, R-La., Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, Susan Collins, R-Maine, John Curtis, R-Utah and Jim Justice, R-W.V.
That’s 11. And many of those on the list could vote yes. They may hold out until the end to either score a provision in the bill they want. Or, they want to understand the final product.
“We don’t know what’s in the bill. The parliamentarian has thrown out some provisions,” said Kennedy. “Look, I’m labor. I’m not management. But I got one vote, the same as management does. And I’m willing to work nights. I’m willing to work weekends. But what I’m not willing to do is have someone pat me on the head and say ‘shut up and just vote for it.’”
Kennedy said he unearthed “a few things in this bill that we weren’t told about. And I’m not happy.”
With hat tips to boxing analysts Al Bernstein and Larry Merchant, Thune reverted to discussing the physicality of senators.
“When push comes to shove, you’re looking at whether or not you’re going to allow the perfect to become the enemy,” said Thune. “You have to recognize that this is a process whereby everybody doesn’t get everything they want.”
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One of the most outstanding issues remains SALT, the deduction for state and local taxes in high-tax states.
“We’ll have a solution on that in 24 to 48 hours,” said Bessent after his huddle with GOP senators.
“I know that there are a lot of conservatives who don’t like it,” said White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on Fox Business. “A lot of very important people in the House, who want it as big as it can be. And, Secretary Bessent is in there working with people to find exactly the right number that’ll land the bill.”
So when does the Senate finish?
“The question of when will the Senate get it done, that’s a great question,” said House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo. “They’ve had it for over six weeks. I’m waiting.”
The Senate will likely take a procedural vote to formally get on the bill on Friday. If the Senate votes to get on the bill, 20 hours of clock time starts to run under special Senate budget rules. The procedural vote only needs a simple majority.
The 20 hours of time is split. Democrats will probably burn all 10 of their hours. Republicans will use a few of their hours. So, the Senate probably begins its “vote-a-rama” on the bill late in the wee hours of Saturday morning.
A “vote-a-rama” is where the Senate takes hours and hours of consecutive roll call votes on amendments to the package.
It would culminate with passage of the Big, Beautiful Bill in the Senate late Saturday or early Sunday.
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Note that it is impossible to game out when this could happen. But frankly, a final vote could come at any time of the day or night all weekend long – if not early Monday.
Also, this scenario presumes everything goes swimmingly.
The most recent vote-a-rama ran just under ten hours earlier this year. A 2021 vote-a-rama consumed 14 hours and 48 minutes, with the Senate considering a total of 40 amendments.
We believe this vote-a-rama might be on the longer end.
Here’s the other wild card:
How fast can the House pivot to pass the bill and align with the Senate?
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., signaled the House may aim to vote on Tuesday.
Also, the “72-hour rule” to allow the House to read the bill before voting does not apply. The Senate is sending back to the House an “amendment” to the original House plan. Thus, the “72-hour rule” is not in play under these circumstances.
However, the question is if Johnson faces pressure to let the bill marinate for a few days.
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But some House conservatives aren’t happy with the Senate measure.
“We’re not going to get jammed on this. We’re just not,” said Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C.
Rep. August Pfluger, R-Texas, believes the Senate should just accept the House measure – since the House could barely pass its version in May.
“We did the hard work of threading a very tight needle with this legislation. So it does not need to come back looking too much different from what we ended up passing out of the House,” said Pfluger.
So the question is whether the Senate can pass its bill. And if the House can accept whatever the Senate passes.
So, as I said, if you don’t have a lot to do this weekend, Capitol Hill may be the spot to be.
Especially at 3:45 Sunday morning.
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