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With one week to go until Election Day in a hotly contested race for a GOP-controlled vacant House seat in a solidly red congressional district in Tennessee, both Republicans and Democrats are pouring resources into the race.
Republican-aligned groups are spending millions of dollars to run ads in the Dec. 2 special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, to avoid the possibility of a major upset and protect the GOP’s current razor-thin 219-213 majority in the House.
President Donald Trump carried the district — which is located in central and western Tennessee, stretches from Kentucky to Alabama, and includes parts of Nashville — by 22 points in last year’s presidential election.
But Democrats, energized following the party’s sweeping victories earlier this month in high-profile ballot box showdowns from coast to coast, are also spending big bucks in the race.
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“The stakes are exceptionally high, especially in the light of the results from the 2025 elections,” Vanderbilt University professor of political science John Greer told Fox News Digital. “Republicans are worried that this district, which is normally safe, could in fact swing to the Democrats.”
Republican nominee Matt Van Epps is facing off against Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn in the race to succeed former GOP Rep. Mark Green, who resigned from office in June to take a private sector job.
Democrats were laser focused on spotlighting the issue of affordability in this autumn’s elections, and Behn, a state representative, former healthcare community organizer and rising progressive star who some have dubbed the “AOC of Tennessee,” is keeping to that script.
“Angry about high grocery prices? Worried about health care costs? Feeling burned by tariffs? Then Dec. 2 is your day to shake up Washington,” she says in her campaign’s final ad.
By casting herself as the candidate who will put a check on Trump’s party in Congress, Behn sees a path to victory.
While Democrats privately acknowledge that the path to victory is narrow, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, who campaigned with Behn earlier this month, argued that she has “an excellent shot to win.”
Van Epps, a military combat veteran and former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services who is backed by Trump, is showcasing his military career as part of his cost of living focus.
“Matt Van Epps. Nine combat tours. True American hero,” the narrator in one of his ads says, before Van Epps adds, “Now, I’m on a new mission: to bring down prices, create good-paying jobs and lower healthcare costs for working families.”
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While both candidates are running commercials, it’s the aligned super PACs and other outside groups that are flooding the airwaves and digital landscape.
The Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. and the fiscally conservative powerhouse Club for Growth have each dished out seven figures to run ads in the race.
“It’s going to be a hard race. They all are, but he’s [Van Epps] going to win that race because he’s more in line with Tennessee,” Club for Growth President David McIntosh told Fox News Digital. “I’m confident of him, and we’re going to help him do it.”
Also playing in the race is Conservatives for American Excellence, which is financed by GOP megadonors.
While not spending as much, Democrat-aligned outside groups are supporting Behn. And last week, House Majority PAC, the top group that backs House Democratic candidates, announced it was pumping $1 million into the Tennessee showdown.
Over the past week, Republicans have been targeting Behn over her past comments from a 2020 podcast.
“I hate the city, I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music, I hate all of the things that make Nashville apparently an ‘it’ city to the rest of the country. But I hate it,” she said in the podcast.
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The district is solidly red, but includes parts of the Democratic stronghold of Nashville, Tennessee’s capital and its most populous city, and a major national center for the country music industry. The district encompasses parts of north and west Nashville, including the downtown area which has long been a very popular tourist destination.
“The Democrat running in a special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, Aftyn Behn, is running on the message: ‘I hate this place, elect me!’ Tennessee deserves better,” the Republican National Committee argued in a social media post last week.
Republicans are also taking aim at Behn over an op-ed titled, “Tennessee is a racist state, and so is its legislature,” that appeared in a 2019 edition of The Tennessean newspaper.
The RNC, pointing in a social media post Wednesday to the six-year-old opinion piece, asked, “If Behn hates Tennessee so much, why is she trying to represent it?”
Also resurfacing in recent days are anti-police comments Behn made on a now-deleted social media account.
Behn campaign manager Kate Briefs, pushing back, said in a statement Monday,” The attacks from Washington Republicans are getting louder because their agenda is deeply unpopular—and because early vote returns show this race is a dead heat. They can’t talk about fixing healthcare, lowering costs, or protecting our hospitals because they have no plan. So instead, they’re throwing mud.”
Behn’s campaign is pointing to what it says is “a surge of first-time and infrequent voters” turning out for early voting.
But Greer, who is co-director of the Vanderbilt Poll, predicted that the special election in an off-election year “is likely to be pretty low and early voting is certainly an indication that it’s going to be pretty low.”
“I still think the Democrats have an uphill climb,” Greer said. “But the fact that Republicans and Democrats are pouring money into the race, both sides see some evidence it could be close.”
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