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Democrats in Florida face an uphill climb as they work to win the governor’s office in next year’s elections.
It’s been more than three decades since a Democrat won a gubernatorial election in the Sunshine State. You have to go all the way back to Democrat Gov. Lawton Chiles’ 1994 re-election.
But former Rep. David Jolly, when asked how the Democrats could end their losing streak, told Fox News Digital, “It’s been even longer since we had an affordability crisis like we’re experiencing right now. That’s how.”
Jolly, who, as a Republican a decade ago, won election and re-election to Congress, on Thursday announced his Democrat candidacy for governor in the 2026 race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis.
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“We have an affordability crisis in Florida driven by an insurance crisis that continues to worsen in the face of complete neglect by Tallahassee. We have abandoned public education, and we’ve allowed corruption to run rampant. It’s time for a change,” Jolly said in a statement.
And in his Fox News interview, Jolly argued that the state’s affordability crisis has “largely been caused by Republican neglect that I don’t believe Republicans will address and that our campaign will.”
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Jolly, who left the Republican Party seven years ago and became an independent and a cable news political analyst on MSNBC, pointed to the GOP’s voter registration advantage in Florida.
“Let’s be honest about the math,” he said. “There aren’t enough Democratic votes in Florida for a Democratic governor to just win with their own party. We have to build a coalition that includes independents and commonsense Republicans. But here’s the good news, it’s already there.”
Jolly, pointing to the recent town halls he’s been holding ahead of his campaign launch, said, “Republicans are turning out. Independents are coming out. There’s a perfect storm for legacy Republicans right now. We have an affordability crisis in Florida that’s hitting every family, every voter, every walk of life, and it doesn’t care what your partisan affiliation is, Republican, Democrat or independent.”
“This is a race much like you’ve seen with Andy Beshear in Kentucky and Steve Bullock in Montana, a coalition for change can win next November. But that coalition is going to have to be led by today’s Democratic Party,” he added.
The mentions of GOP-dominated Kentucky’s current Democrat governor and red-state Montana’s former Democrat governor were intentional. Jolly recently hired as an adviser Democrat political strategist Eric Hyers, who helped steer Beshear and Bullock’s successful campaigns.
Four years ago, former governor and former Rep. Charlie Crist, another Republican-turned-Democrat, was trounced by DeSantis as the conservative governor cruised to re-election by 19 points.
Jolly highlighted that Crist (who defeated Jolly as the then-congressman ran for re-election in 2016) quickly transitioned from Republican to Democrat.
“It was transactional for running for office. He would always say, ‘I didn’t leave the party. The party left me,'” Jolly noted.
“David Jolley left the party,” he said. “I’ve grown. I’ve changed.”
“Over the last 10 years, my values haven’t changed,” Jolly said. “This is very important. When I was a Republican in Congress, I supported marriage equality, gun control, climate change, campaign finance reform. Republicans didn’t want me. Democrats didn’t need me, but those values were already there then. I am a person of deep faith. I grew up a preacher’s kid in a Christian church. I belong to a Christian church today.”
But Florida Republicans predict Jolly will become the latest in a line of defeated Democrat gubernatorial candidates.
“It’s good to know Never Trumper and failed MSNBC analyst has found his true home in the irrelevant @FlaDems,” Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power said after Jolly joined the Democratic Party. “I welcome him to run for Governor, the nearly 40% of the electorate that voted for @CharlieCrist deserve an equally bad choice this cycle.”
Making the Democrats’ climb to win back the governor’s office next year even steeper is last month’s announcement by state Sen. Jason Pizzo, the former state Senate Democrat leader, to run for governor as an independent. Weeks earlier, Pizzo argued the Florida Democratic Party was “dead.”
“I have enormous respect for Jason Pizzo. He followed his political conviction, just as I did. I disagree with his decision,” Jolly said.
But Jolly also said, “Jason was right when he said you’ve got millions of disaffected independent voters” and added that “my job as the Democratic candidate, and perhaps the Democratic nominee, is to build a coalition that says [to] those independent voters, ‘We want you in this coalition.’”
In the race for the Republican gubernatorial primary, Rep. Byron Donalds appears to be on an early glide path to the nomination as speculation of a possible bid by first lady Casey DeSantis cools.
Donalds enjoys the support and endorsement of Florida’s most famous resident: President Donald Trump.
“This race is not about Donald Trump. You’ll never hear me talk about Donald Trump. It’s about the affordability crisis and how Republicans in Tallahassee have created it,” Jolly said.
But Jolly argued that “Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are the scene-setters for an earthquake-of-a-change election environment in the state of Florida, because if voters in Florida are demanding change, I’m not sure they could look at Trump’s endorsed candidate in Byron Donalds and see change. If it’s Casey DeSantis, you’re not seeing change. You’re seeing the third term of Ron DeSantis.”
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