Fox News Poll: An early look at the 2026 midterms

As the midterm election year gets underway, voters are already drawing clear lines between the Democratic and Republican parties on the issues.

A new Fox News survey, released Thursday, finds the Republican Party is seen as better able to handle border security (by 15 points), national security (+12), and immigration (+5).

The Democratic Party is favored on transgender issues (by 22 points), healthcare (+21), vaccines (+16), helping the middle class (+14), and affordability (+14). 

And on three issues where Republicans have recently held the edge, now neither party has shown a clear preference: taxes (+1D), foreign policy (even), and the federal budget deficit (+2R).

FOX NEWS POLL: DONALD TRUMP STARTS 2026 WITH 44% APPROVAL

The survey asks voters what President Donald Trump’s top priorities should be, and the economy dominates. Nearly 4 in 10 cite either the economy in general (19%) or prices (17%). 

The view that the Democrats can better handle affordability gives them an early edge in the generic Congressional vote preference, where voters are asked who they will support in the U.S. House race in their district this November. While the question is largely hypothetical this far out, it gives us a baseline for the coming election, according to Republican pollster Daron Shaw.

“Political science analyses demonstrate that aggregate responses to this question begin to more accurately predict the actual House vote by around mid-summer,” Shaw added. “But we ask it at this point simply to get a sense of how short-term forces might play out in the general election.”

The survey shows if the election were today, 52% of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 46% the Republican. That’s a 6-point edge, which is right at the poll’s margin of sampling error.

The current 52% Democratic support is the highest recorded for either party; the previous high was 50% for the Democrats in October 2017.

Both parties are maintaining most of their coalitions. Democrats garner support from Black voters (+48 points), voters under age 30 (+28), and college graduates (+17), while Republicans receive backing from White evangelical Christians (+41), rural voters (+21), and White voters without a degree (+10). 

FOX NEWS POLL: 59% OF VOTERS SAY ICE IS TOO AGGRESSIVE, UP 10 POINTS SINCE JULY

While the parties maintain high levels of support among most of their constituencies, Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to defect across the aisle: 8% of self-identified Republicans currently say they would back the Democratic candidate, compared to 4% of self-identified Democrats who say they would go for the Republican today. 

Overall, three-quarters of voters say they are extremely (56%) or very (20%) motivated to vote in the November elections, and those voters are slightly more committed to the Democratic candidate than the Republican. That’s at least partly due to more Democrats (82%) than Republicans (76%) or independents (61%) saying they feel inclined to vote this year. Overall, motivation is on par with the 2022 midterm cycle, when 54% of voters said they were extremely motivated to vote.

Twenty-eight percent of voters approve of the job Congress is doing, a 2-point increase since last January and the highest approval in nearly three years. However, disapproval is also up — from 67% last year to 71% today.

In the generic ballot, those who disapprove of Congress are twice as likely to support the Democratic candidate (65%) as the Republican (33%). The small group of those who approve largely favor the Republican over the Democrat (79% to 21%).

One more thing…

As Congress considers banning stock trading among members, the new survey finds 75% of voters favor the proposal. That’s unchanged from where things stood in September and higher than the 70% who favored the measure in 2022.

Majorities of Democrats (70%), Republicans (83%), and independents (67%) favor a ban on stock trading by members of Congress, their immediate family, and staff.

CLICK HERE FOR CROSSTABS AND TOPLINE

Conducted January 23-26, 2026 under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,005 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (106) and cellphones (645) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (254). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data.