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A Fox News survey of New Jersey voters finds Democrat Mikie Sherrill ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 8 percentage points among likely voters (50-42%) and 7 points among the larger sample of registered voters (48-41%) – both lead just outside the margin of sampling error.
The candidates are vying for the seat being vacated by term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who beat Ciattarelli in the 2021 gubernatorial election by only about 3 points.
This analysis uses registered voter results.
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Sherrill, a congresswoman, gets her biggest backing from Black and Hispanic voters, those with a college degree and voters under age 45. There is a 15-point gender gap with women preferring Sherrill by 14 points and men favoring Ciattarelli by 1.
Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman, does best among MAGA supporters, White Catholics, White men without a college degree and voters ages 45-54.
Nearly equal numbers of Republicans back Ciattarelli (90%) as Democrats go for Sherrill (89%), and the preference among the small subgroup of independents splits. Sherrill is helped by more New Jersey voters identifying as Democrats than Republicans.
Both Sherrill and Ciattarelli supporters have a high degree of vote certainty (84% each). Still, the race has room for movement because about one voter in seven says they could change their mind before casting ballots.
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By an 8-point margin, a larger share of Ciattarelli supporters (50%) than Sherrill supporters (42%) say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than usual.
The Fox News survey was completed after both the first gubernatorial debate on September 21 and news that the National Personnel Records Center at the National Archives had mistakenly released unredacted portions of Sherrill’s military file. That release, reported publicly on September 25, prompted complaints from Sherrill and other Democrats, while the Ciattarelli campaign began pressing her on the issue.
By a 6-point margin, more voters have a positive opinion of Sherrill (51%) than of Ciattarelli (45%) and, by a 7-point spread, more think she is honest and trustworthy (56%) than say the same about him (49%).
Murphy’s favorable rating is underwater by a single point (47% vs. 48%).
While more than half remain dissatisfied with the direction of their state, New Jersey voters are happier now than when Murphy was elected: 46% are satisfied with how things are going, up 9 percentage points from 37% who felt that way in 2017.
The New Jersey electorate is concerned about two main issues. In spontaneous, unprompted replies, 34% say taxes are the biggest problem facing the state and 20% cite the cost of living. Other issues like housing and energy costs are mentioned by 5% or fewer.
Sherrill is preferred by 16 points among those whose priority is the cost of living, while tax voters favor Ciattarelli by 5.
Only 4% of voters view President Donald Trump/the Republicans as the biggest problem for the state, but one-third say one reason for their vote is to express opposition to Trump (34%), more than double the number who are voting to show him support (16%).
Six in 10 Democrats say their vote is to express opposition to Trump compared to four in 10 Republicans who say theirs is to show support. More than half of Republicans say Trump is not a factor in their vote (56%).
Overall, 42% of New Jersey voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 55% view him unfavorably. That’s a net negative of 13 points, which is an improvement since 2017, when his ratings were underwater by 26 points.
While former Vice President Kamala Harris won New Jersey by 6 points (52%), Trump received 46% of the vote in last year’s presidential election, up from the 41% he received in both 2020 and 2016.
Poll-pourri
A 54% majority of New Jersey voters think the way Republicans talk about politics these days is leading to an increase in violence, while just under half, 48%, say the same about Democrats.
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Conducted Sept. 25-28, 2025, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,002 New Jersey registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (120) and cellphones (638) or completed the survey online by following a link received via text message (244). There was a subsample of 822 likely voters. Results based on both the registered voter and likely voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points.
Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are identified based on past vote history and self-reported likelihood of voting. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
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