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In the contest for New York City mayor, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani’s lead has narrowed since early October, but he’s still ahead by double-digits, and his lead holds in a hypothetical two-way race.
The analysis below focuses on New York City likely voters.
The latest Fox News Poll, released Thursday, finds Mamdani with a 16-point lead: 47% back him, while 15% favor Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa and 31% go for independent candidate Andrew Cuomo.
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Mamdani’s lead has decreased since mid-October when he was ahead by 24 points and above the 50% threshold (52% support). Support for Cuomo is up 3 points, and Sliwa’s remains unchanged (+1).
Independent candidate and current mayor Eric Adams received 2% support despite dropping out of the race Sept. 28. Adams will still appear on the ballot.
Mamdani’s largest support comes from very liberal voters (85%), those under age 30 (73%), women and men under age 45 (69%, 65%) and Democrats (61%). He’s lost a bit of ground with young women and Democrats (down 4 points in each group).
For Cuomo, his best groups are Jewish voters (55%), voters ages 65 and up (43%), women ages 45+ (42%) and White voters without a college degree (42%).
Mamdani receives greater support among men (51%) than women (44%), while Cuomo gets more backing from women (35%) than men (26%).
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Sliwa garners 55% of Republicans, down 7 points from two weeks ago. Moreover, in early October, 60% of 2024 Donald Trump supporters backed Sliwa, but that’s down to 47% today. Another 38% back Cuomo and 7% Mamdani.
More than half of nonwhite voters back Mamdani, including 52% of Black voters and 60% of Hispanic voters, while roughly a quarter of nonwhites back Cuomo. Mamdani and Cuomo lost ground with Black voters, each down 4 points.
Mamdani’s lead narrows to 10 points in a hypothetical two-way matchup, as Cuomo garners increased support from Republicans, voters ages 65-plus, women and those without a college degree.
Mamdani supporters continue to be more enthusiastic (78% extremely or very) about voting than Sliwa’s (59%) or Cuomo’s (52%).
Also, more of his backers are certain they will vote for him (91%) than Sliwa’s (83%) or Cuomo’s (87%). However, Cuomo supporters are 9 points more certain about their vote choice now compared to the middle of October.
Those who are very liberal and young voters (especially young women) are among those most enthusiastic to head to the ballot box, and more than 4 in 10 of those under 30 will be voting for the first time.
“Everyone says turnout is key, but in an off-year municipal election with a controversial, charismatic candidate as the frontrunner, ‘everyone’ is correct,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Mamdani’s supporters say they are enthusiastic about voting, but they are also relatively young and inexperienced. If they show up, he likely cruises and may even conceivably hit 50%. If they don’t show, Cuomo could draw within single digits.”
Mamdani’s advantage on the issues has weakened, although he is still viewed as best to handle key priorities. Two weeks ago, 52% said he could better handle the economy. Today it’s down 5 points to 47%, although he far outpaces Cuomo (32%). Mamdani’s number is also down on crime (-6 points) and taxes (-2 points), but he still bests Cuomo or Sliwa.
Mamdani’s biggest advantage is on bringing needed change, where 50% say he will do the best job, compared to 26% who say the same of Cuomo and 20% for Sliwa. The candidates are closest on who can competently run the government: 42% Mamdani, 40% Cuomo and 16% Sliwa.
“The main feature of this election is a stark generation divide. Younger voters are hopeful Mamdani will bring needed change, while seniors fear he’ll destabilize the city,” Anderson said. “Cuomo has raised concerns about public safety under Mamdani, and it may have gained him a few points. But the clock is running out, and there is no evidence Mamdani’s support is at risk of collapsing, which is what would be required for Cuomo to prevail.”
Mamdani and Cuomo are both viewed more negatively compared to earlier this month. Mamdani had a net positive favorable rating of +23 two weeks ago compared to +12 today. Cuomo was at a net negative favorable rating of -1 and is now at -8.
While their ratings remain underwater, both Sliwa and Trump saw increases in their favorable net ratings: Sliwa up 7 points and Trump up 6.
How important is Israel to NYC voters?
The survey asks voters how important the mayoral candidates’ positions on Israel are to their candidate choice. Nearly half (47%) say extremely or very important, while more than half (52%) say somewhat or not at all.
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Likely voters are 5 points more inclined to say it is extremely important (27%) than not at all (22%). While about half of each major candidate’s supporters say the issue is important, Mamdani carries each of these groups – voters saying it is extremely, very, somewhat, or not at all important – by at least 7 points.
Conducted Oct. 24-28, 2025 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,107 New York City registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (167) and cellphones (661) or completed the survey online by following a link received via text message (279). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. There was a subsample of 971 likely voters and the margin of sampling error was ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are identified based on past vote history and self-reported likelihood of voting.
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