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With less than nine months before a politically bruising battle in the November midterm elections, the realities of a one-seat majority are bearing down on the House GOP.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. — and by extension, President Donald Trump — faced back-to-back losses on the House floor last week after a small group of GOP rebels joined Democrats in an effort to curb Trump’s unilateral tariff authority.
It’s part of a growing trend that comes with a razor-thin House majority, and moderates making a choice between appealing to their battleground district voters and following the president in a year when history dictates the opposing party will fare better in the coming elections.
“Getting things done in Washington can be tough enough as it is,” veteran GOP strategist Doug Heye told Fox News Digital. “Add to that a super slim majority and the shortened legislative calendar of an election year, and it’s tough to see much happening legislatively through the rest of the year.”
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Last Tuesday, House GOP leaders tried to insert language into an unrelated procedural vote aimed at blocking Democrats from forcing consideration of a bill aimed at limiting Trump’s ability to levy tariffs on Canada without consent from Congress.
That failed, however, after three Republicans joined Democrats in sinking that procedural vote — Reps. Kevin Kiley, R-Calif., Don Bacon, R-Neb., and Thomas Massie, R-Ky.
“I think it was not unexpected, and certainly we’ve got to find a new course to chart now,” one House Republican granted anonymity to speak freely told Fox News Digital.
“This is going to change the dynamics of the type of legislation we’re going to see, and the type of political posturing the Democrats are going to do the next nine months. So we’ve got to come up with a better strategy.”
But Republicans who spoke with Fox News Digital largely did not blame Johnson, arguing he was doing his best with the circumstances in front of him. Instead, much frustration was aimed at their fellow GOP lawmakers who dissented.
The move not only paved the way for a vote on Trump’s Canada tariffs, but opened the door to allowing Democrats to force a vote on tariffs targeting other countries as well.
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“A lot of people were disappointed with how that went, with the actors who voted no” rather than House leadership, a second House Republican said.
They pointed out that the following day would bring a vote on Trump’s tariffs themselves — a politically tricky situation for people in vulnerable seats.
“I get the overall idea about tariffs. That’s not the vehicle to vote no on and put a lot of our moderates in jeopardy, and that’s exactly what happened,” the second GOP lawmaker said.
A third House Republican said there was “frustration that they aren’t playing team ball like they used to, and we need them to.”
But not everyone agreed. Rep. Eli Crane, R-Ariz., a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, told Fox News Digital, “I actually like when they put bills on the floor, even if they don’t have the votes…it gives the American people a chance to see where their representatives stand. And far too often, the calculus is, well, we’re not gonna put it on the floor if we don’t think it has the votes.”
“A lot of the American people don’t even know where their reps stand, because this whole place is designed to shield members from taking votes,” Crane said.
He added of Johnson’s leadership, “I think it’s one of the hardest jobs you can have. I’ve been critical of the speaker in the past, but what he’s working with, I think he’s doing a good job.”
Democrats did successfully force a vote on ending Trump’s emergency at the northern border the following day, which if passed in the Senate and signed into law would effectively roll back his Canada tariffs.
Three more Republicans — Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., Jeff Hurd, R-Colo., and Dan Newhouse, R-Wash. — joined the original trio in voting to pass the measure, even despite Trump vowing political “consequences” for those who dissented.
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It’s almost certain that Trump would veto the resolution if it gets to his desk, but it’s an example of a situation that is increasingly likely to happen as the midterms draw closer.
Bacon and Newhouse, for example, are not running for re-election. Fitzpatrick and Hurd are running in battleground districts where their independence from the party line could be critical to their survival — and Republicans’ overall chances of keeping the House.
Trump is already targeting Massie with a primary challenge, and Kiley has not yet said what his plans are for November after California Democrats badly disadvantaged him with a new congressional map.
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“I think you’re going to see some moderate Republicans try to distinguish themselves as being independent voters or independent thinkers … and this is a way to do it,” John Feehery of EFB Advocacy, who served as press secretary to former Republican House Speaker Dennis J. Hastert, told Fox News Digital.
“And the tariffs are not uniformly popular amongst the Republican conference. I mean, most Republicans would probably want to vote with those guys. But they don’t want to undermine the president as he’s negotiating.”
Republicans are currently dealing with a one-seat majority until mid-March, when a special election for the seat vacated by former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., is likely to get another GOP lawmaker into the House.
But the April race for a blue-leaning seat to replace New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherill could bring the margin back down. Republicans would then not likely see relief until August, when a special election will be held to replace late Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Calif.
And Feehery said Democrats’ unwillingness to work with Trump will likely keep much of the president’s agenda from succeeding in Congress this year.
“It doesn’t look to me like the Democrats have any interest in giving Trump any kind of legislative victory, so that makes it very difficult. I mean, [House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.], he doesn’t really want to work with Trump at all, and so it’s going to pretty much scale back the ability for Republicans to get much done for the rest of the year,” he said.
“And the other situation is that the Senate, they’re not going to get 60 votes for a lot of things, so it just makes the agenda itself pretty slim.”
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