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Days ahead of the U.S. preparing harsh new sanctions tied to the war in Ukraine, Russian Vladimir Putin, whether intentionally or just carelessly, has tested the political will of NATO’s collective defense guarantee, Article 5.
In recent days, drones launched from the Russian-aligned state of Belarus have pierced Lithuanian airspace, drawing alarms from the region’s political and military leaders. One drone traversed approximately 100 kilometers, loitered ominously over Vilnius carrying two kilograms of explosives and ultimately crashed inside a military training zone. Earlier in July, another drone forced the evacuation of high-level officials when it crashed near the Šumskas border crossing.
Simultaneously, Russian forces struck a Ukrainian gas depot located mere yards from Romania’s border half a mile away, a strike that triggered warnings and prompted Romanian F‑16s to patrol the vicinity.
Though these seem like isolated incidents, observers point to a troubling pattern. Russian drones have drifted — or perhaps even been directed — into NATO airspace before, and NATO’s response has been muted.
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Andrew D’Anieri, associate director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, told Fox News Digital that while it isn’t crystal clear whether Putin is openly testing Article 5, his apparent lack of caution about these actions is telling.
“The kind of alarming thing is, we haven’t seen any real response from NATO to any of these,” D’Anieri said.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė, while stressing that there is no evidence suggesting the latest drone breached intentionally, said “this is an unprecedented and alarming incident,” especially given that the drone flew just one kilometer from the president’s residence.
Describing the behavior as “reckless drone incursions,” she warned they amount to “a direct test of NATO’s resolve.” In response, Lithuania has pledged to review its defensive protocols and urged NATO to bolster its air defenses as a clear message that the alliance stands ready to safeguard every inch of its territory.
Romania, having endured repeated drone spillovers, passed a law this May empowering its forces to intercept or destroy unauthorized drones. As a result, no incursion occurred in connection with the latest strike near its border.
Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, has been sounding the alarm for months. In November 2024, Kahl cautioned that Russia’s growing employment of hybrid tactics — ranging from sabotage and cyberattacks to disinformation — raises the likelihood that NATO may ultimately feel compelled to invoke Article 5.
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More recently, his warnings intensified. In June 2025, he told the media that Moscow appears intent on putting NATO’s unity and collective defense to the test. Kahl revealed that Russian officials seem to doubt whether the alliance would uphold Article 5 and might instead deploy covert measures — “little green men” or hybrid provocations — to probe NATO’s response, rather than launching overt invasions.
This perspective was echoed by former Lithuanian Ambassador Eitvydas Bajarūnas, who told Fox News Digital that even if the drone events weren’t intentional, their psychological force is real.
“This will be the future of war in Eastern Europe,” he said. “We might not expect an immediate Russian attack, we might have Russia testing how institutions react, how the public reacts, even. Russia might use these even accidental drone incursions into Baltic airspace, to shore up public anxiety.”
Bajarunas too called for a whole of NATO response. “These are incursions into NATO territory. That’s why we should not think of it only as a national response, but also allies, the response of the whole of NATO.”
Putin’s hybrid probes, from drone flights to border strikes, may well mark the new battleground in Eastern Europe, where the test is not one of tanks or missiles, but of unity, readiness and political will.
President Donald Trump gave Putin until Friday for a breakthrough in peace negotiations, after which he has promised to enact steep sanctions.
Trump suggested this week he would target Putin’s oil-backed war coffers. “Putin will stop killing people if you get energy down another $10 a barrel. He’s going to have no choice because his economy stinks,” the president told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
Still, the president remained optimistic about negotiations after his envoy, Steve Witkoff, traveled to Russia to meet with Putin. “Great progress was made!” Trump promised. “Everyone agrees this war must come to a close, and we will work towards that in the days and weeks to come.”
The Kremlin has claimed Trump and Putin will soon meet face-to-face for negotiations for the first time in this administration.
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