Shutdown ignites strategist debate: Will Trump and GOP pay the political price in 2026?

The 2025 government shutdown is about to enter its second week, with Democrats and Republicans still unable to agree on a federal funding deal.

It’s the first government shutdown since 2019, when federal agencies were shuttered for 35 days.

Both sides have been blaming the other for the dysfunction in Washington; Democrats are accusing Republicans of letting healthcare premiums go up for millions of Americans, while the GOP is blaming the left for putting vulnerable Americans at risk while holding the government hostage for partisan demands.

Political strategists who spoke with Fox News Digital, however, have downplayed the shutdown’s effects on the coming 2026 elections.

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“Every time there has been a shutdown, there have been myriad of stories on winners and losers, who gets the blame, what does it mean for the elections, etc. And yet, every time the result is the same — voters aren’t thinking about the last shutdown when they vote,” GOP strategist Doug Heye told Fox News Digital.

“Republicans ‘lost’ the 2013 shutdown. Impacts on the 2014 election? Zero. Could this be different? Maybe. But there’s nothing to suggest that yet.”

Others have suggested Republicans could see some public blame, but similarly argued that other issues — namely, the economy and cost of living — would take precedence in voters’ minds next year.

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“Ultimately, what’s going to decide the midterms next year is going to be the economy. People are very upset about the economy. They’re very upset about inflation. They were promised that everything was going to get less expensive. Now everything’s more expensive,” said Mike Nellis, a Democratic strategist and founder of fundraising and campaigns firm Authentic.

“So I think that’s going to be a much greater decider than the government shutdown.”

In the short term, however, Nellis said he saw Republicans bearing the brunt of the blame — noting they control the House, Senate and White House.

“Typically, neither party looks good during a shutdown, just broadly. But the party in power gets blamed for what’s happening,” he said.

Meanwhile, John Feehery of EFB Advocacy, who served as press secretary to former Republican House Speaker Dennis J. Hastert, said blame would fall mostly along party lines.

He added that Independents, however, would likely blame the GOP, “because they are the ones who typically like shutdowns.”

“I would say that even though the Democrats clearly are to blame for this, because this is their strategy, I think Republicans are going to get blamed slightly more than the Democrats,” Feehery said.

On the 2026 electoral impacts, however, he said, “There’s winners and losers in the parlor games in Washington, but amongst the American people…they blame both sides, and they don’t seem to really take it out on whoever the party in power is.”

Brad Bannon of polling firm Bannon Communications Research, a Democratic strategist, said inflation would likely matter more than the shutdown in 2026.

“If prices start going down, you know, the whole issue would not be a problem for Republicans, and it won’t have any impact,” Bannon said. “I think the key question is not how long the shutdown lasts, but how much, in 13 months, inflation continues to be a problem.”

He pointed to a recent poll in the Washington Post that showed Republicans seeing slightly more blame for the current shutdown than Democrats in terms of short-term impact.

That poll showed 47% of Americans blaming Republicans, compared to 30% blaming Democrats. Twenty-three percent of people were undecided.

The shutdown is poised to enter its second week after Senate Democrats rejected the GOP’s plan for a fourth time on Friday.

The measure, called a continuing resolution (CR), is a mostly flat seven-week extension of current federal funding levels. It also would include $88 million in security funding for lawmakers, the White House and the judicial branch — which has bipartisan support.

But Democrats in the House and Senate were infuriated by being sidelined in federal funding talks. 

They have been pushing for an extension of Obamacare subsidies enhanced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Those enhancements would expire by the end of 2025 without congressional action.

Republican leaders have signaled openness to discussions about reforming and enhancing those healthcare credits but are rejecting Democrats’ demand to include them in the seven-week bill.