The United States has wargamed Venezuela ruler Nicolas Maduro’s fall from power, and none of the scenarios are “good” for Venezuelan civilians. All of the wargames ended in violence and bloody power struggles.
This is not a huge surprise. In the absence of power, and as long as humans believe they should be ruled, others will fight to be the ruler. A war with Venezuela will only increase the amount of violence and death, even though the U.S. continues to claim it’s all about “narco terrorism,” and not regime change.
The three scenarios that the U.S. decided to war game were detailed by The Guardian.
- Nicolás Maduro is chased out of office by a massive popular revolt, but the Venezuelan military takes to the streets, turning its guns on the civilians who have brought him down.
- A palace coup sends Venezuela’s authoritarian leader into exile, sparking a bloody power struggle between members of his disintegrating regime.
- Maduro or a key ally is assassinated by a US “decapitation” strike, but – as foreign soldiers commandeer Caracas and key airports and ports – leftwing insurgents tighten their grip on the country’s mineral-rich hinterlands and regime loyalists launch guerrilla-style attacks on oil refineries and pipelines.
These scenarios were wargamed six years ago. “You’d have prolonged chaos … with no clear way out,” said Douglas Farah, a Latin America expert whose national security consulting firm was part of those 2019 strategising efforts.
“If there’s a popular uprising, the military is probably gonna be very defensive, very violent, and reactionary to the protests on the street. [You’ll have] a lot of people dead,” warned Farah, who thought, in that scenario, it was possible Colombian guerrillas, including the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissident members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), might enter the fray on the side of Venezuela’s nominally leftwing regime.
That means that even if the U.S. strategically takes out Maduro, which they seem to be willing to do, the country will plunge into guerrilla warfare, and people are going to suffer while they fight for their lives as others attempt to secure power through force and violence.
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