One year ago, Saudi Arabia and Israel were on the precipice of a normalization deal that would have realigned the Middle East and further isolated Iran.
This week, Saudi Arabia and Iran held their first-ever joint naval drills in the Gulf of Oman, their ministries revealed, in what would seem to be a sign of rapprochement between the longtime regional foes.
“The Royal Saudi Naval Forces had recently concluded a joint naval exercise with the Iranian Naval Forces alongside other countries in the Sea of Oman,” Saudi armed forces spokesperson Turki al-Malki confirmed to the French news outlet AFP.
He added “no other exercises are being addressed during this period of time.”
Shiite Muslim-dominated Iran and Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia severed ties in 2016 and have long backed opposing sides in regional conflicts. They resumed relations last year in a China-brokered deal, even as the U.S. hoped to bring them into an Abraham Accords-style deal that would normalize their relationship with Tehran’s enemy number-one, Israel.
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Iran claimed that it was Saudi Arabia that organized the drills.
“Saudi Arabia has asked that we organize joint exercises in the Red Sea,” the commander of Iran’s navy, Admiral Shahram Irani, was quoted as saying by ISNA.
The U.S. has military facilities and troops stationed in Saudi Arabia. The U.S. conducted a large-scale logistics exercise with the Royal Saudi Armed Forces and United Arab Emirates Armed Forces in May.
“Hard not to exaggerate the significance of this. It’s as if the U.S. and Russia were to hold a joint military exercise,” Iranian-born commentator Hooman Majd wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
Other experts said the exercises proved only that the kingdom is fearful of Tehran.
“The Saudis are concerned about being caught between [Iran and Israel],” Meir Javedanfar, an Iran lecturer at Reichman University in Tel Aviv, told Fox News Digital, adding that they took part in the naval drills to “not be seen as taking Israel’s side.”
“Behind closed doors, the Saudis remain deeply suspicious of Iran’s policies, especially in Yemen.”
“I would see this more as a ‘hedge your bets’ situation,” said Victoria Coates, deputy national security advisor during the Trump administration.
“They are concerned about whether or not the U.S. would be robust in its defense of the kingdom in the event that the Iranians, in retaliation for whatever Israel will or will not do targets them.”
“Built into the original Iranian charter is the assertion that the House of Saud is the illegitimate keeper of the two mosques, and that they should be in Shiite hands. So fundamentally, those two can’t play in the same sandbox,” she added, referring to the two holiest sites in Islam, Mecca and Medina, both under Saudi Arabia’s control.
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This week’s drills came after Iran conducted naval drills with Russia and Oman in the Indian Ocean last week, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Thailand participating as observers to the drills.
In Yemen, a Saudi-led coalition has been fighting the Iran-backed Houthis since 2015. The U.S. has stepped up its strikes on Houthi postures in Yemen in recent weeks, after Houthis have terrorized shipping lanes in the Red Sea over the past year.
The original outline of a Saudi normalization deal with Israel paid little heed to the Palestinian cause. Now, as Saudi Arabia has demanded a ceasefire in Israel’s war with Hamas, the kingdom insists that it will not normalize relations with Israel without a Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital.
President Joe Biden’s team had been working on a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal when Hamas launched its attack on Oct. 7. Many believe the attack was intended primarily to thwart efforts to secure such a deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to insist that he can nail down negotiations with Riyadh – but not until after the presidential election.
His U.S. allies who helped broker the Abraham Accords deals with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have long held out hope too, despite Israel’s bloody offensives to eradicate Hamas in Gaza and push back Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“I’m cautiously optimistic we can pull this off,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.
Saudi Arabia, Graham argued, might be the only hope for a post-war Gaza.
“Israel can’t occupy Gaza,” he said. “The only viable solution here for permanent security, for Israel and stability and peace is have Saudi Arabia and the UAE rebuild Gaza and reform the [Palestinian Authority] in a way that will give better governance to the Palestinian people, eliminate the corruption, de-radicalize the school system and give security buffers to Israel.”
The military drills came after Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, traveled to Riyadh earlier this month – where he reportedly threatened their oil facilities if Israel were to attack Iran’s oil.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal court, said: “The Iranians have stated: ‘If the Gulf states open up their airspace to Israel, that would be an act of war.'”
The Saudis, in turn, urged the U.S. to implore Israel to avoid striking Iran’s oil facilities in response to the 200 missiles it rained down on Tel Aviv on Oct. 1, a U.S. source confirmed to Reuters.
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