Whoever wins the White House in November will need to put three policy items at the top of the “To Do” list, according to 132 of the nation’s top economists.
“A majority of panelists identifies budget deficits and immigration reform as the top two policy issues facing the next administration,” said National Association for Business Economics (NABE) President Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist and global head of thematic and macro investing for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
NABE’s August survey, released Monday, also listed the overall economy as the third priority.
Fifty-nine percent of participants listed budget deficits as the number one issue. The U.S. borrowed over $1.5 trillion over the first 10 months of the fiscal 2024 year, including more than $240 billion last month, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s Monthly Budget Review.
Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, urged the next president not to waste time in confronting these issues.
“Our fiscal trajectory cannot be left on autopilot – the stakes are far too high and the consequences far too steep to leave our national debt climbing in perpetuity,” she warned in the report’s release.
U.S. NATIONAL DEBT TRACKER
The national debt, which measures what the U.S. owes its creditors — stands at over $35 trillion through last week, according to the U.S. Treasury Department. Four decades ago, it averaged just over $900 billion.
“Considering the sheer size of the challenges we already face – interest costs on course to exceed our defense and Medicare budgets, deficits barreling toward $2 trillion, and no plan in the works to turn things around – how can we afford to sit idle any longer?” she also added.
VP HARRIS’ PLAN WOULD ADD TRILLIONS TO U.S. DEBT: WATCHDOG
On Friday, Vice President Kamala Harris unveiled her economic plan coined “Agenda to Lower Costs for American Families.” The broad plan included $25,000 for first-time homebuyers, multiple housing affordability measures and an expansion of the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit, among other initiatives.
Following the release, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) found that these plans would increase federal budget deficits by $1.7 trillion over the next decade.
TRUMP AND HARRIS SUPPORT ENDING TAXES ON TIPS: WHAT DO EXPERTS THINK?
Vice President Harris also followed former President Trump’s promise to eliminate federal taxation on tips. The CRFB noted her plan may increase deficits to as much as $200 billion, while former President’s Trump plan would up them by as much as $250 billion. Other factors that could have an impact, such as how employers and workers reclassify this income, remain “uncertain”, the CRFB noted.
As for immigration, no respondents said policies “are fine as they are” the survey detailed.
However, over 60% said the volume of those entering the country legally should increase in tandem with upping high-skill and low skill visa programs and still, border enforcement needs to be stepped up.
On the economy, the group remains optimistic, putting the chance of a U.S. recession at 25% next year, slightly higher than the 22% polled in February’s survey.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver the keynote speech at the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he is expected to lay out more details on the expected interest rate cut in September.
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