White women could be the key voting bloc that secures the 2024 Election for Vice President Kamala Harris, CNN data reporter Harry Enten argued on the network on Tuesday.
Recent polls show former President Trump gaining ground with Latino and Black voters. However, the largest group of likely voters, White women, have shifted away from Trump in battleground states, according to Enten’s analysis.
An aggregate of polling indicates that Harris is underperforming among White men, women of color and men of color, when compared to voters who supported President Biden in the 2020 Election. However, Harris is outperforming among White women to “a historic degree,” Enten said.
Trump won this voting bloc by seven points in 2020, according to post-election surveys taken at the time. Since 2012, the Republican presidential candidate has won the White women vote. But with less than three weeks to go until the November election, Trump now holds just a 1-point advantage among this group, the data guru said.
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“He‘s doing the worst — if this holds — for a GOP candidate this century among White women,” Enten continued.
Harris’ lead with White women could ultimately help her win the election, he argued, since they make up 36% of the electorate, according to his analysis.
“Yesterday we were talking about those massive gains that Donald Trump was making among Black men, Black women. But the bottom line is, they actually make up a considerably smaller portion of the electorate than White women do,” Enten said.
“So when we‘re talking about 5, 6-point shifts, 7-point shifts in Kamala Harris‘ direction, [among White women], we‘re talking about that among a major part of the electorate and that can actually move the overall electorate more than ginormous shift among a considerably smaller part of the electorate,” he said.
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Polls suggest abortion is driving these voters to support the Democratic ticket this election, he said.
According to a New York Times/Siena College survey cited by CNN, abortion is the top voting issue for 27% of women across the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where over 80% of voters are White.
“I think what we‘re talking about here is after Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, White women in the suburban areas, in these key battleground states, have very much turned against Republicans, and we‘re seeing in the polling right now, because Kamala Harris is doing historically well, at least this century for a Democratic candidate among White women. And of course they make up a very large portion of the electorate,” Enten said.
“If she wins it could ultimately be because she did so well with White women,” Enten continued.
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