We’re already over 20% of the way through the 2026 Major League Baseball season, and some very surprising trends are becoming clear.
The automated balls and strikes system was supposed to lead to better accuracy from home plate umpires, and the end of egregiously missed calls. And while that’s generally played out, there’s been an unexpected consequence of the new challenge format: a record number of walks.
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After an offseason dominated by discussion of the importance of big markets and high payrolls in MLB, many of the richest teams and most expensive rosters are struggling mightily.
The New York Mets have the second-highest payroll in baseball and the highest-paid player in the history of the sport. They’re 11-22, in last place in the National League East by 12.5 games already, and their odds of making the postseason have dropped from nearly 90% to 25%. The Philadelphia Phillies are 13-20 and 10.5 games out of first place despite a top-5 payroll and superstars like Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper.
How that plays out will be one of the most fascinating subplots of the season as we head into labor negotiations. But arguably the most surprising outcome thus far? How terrible the American League looks to be.
American League teams are off to an awful start
A few days into May, the entire National League Central division is over .500. The Cubs are 21-12, Cardinals 20-13, Reds 20-13, Brewers 18-14 and Pirates 18-16.
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Meanwhile, just four of 15 AL teams have a winning record, and two of those four are 18-16 or 17-16. That means 13 out of 15 teams in the American League would be either in last place or tied for last place in the NL Central.
The combined record in the National League is 258-238, or a collective winning percentage of .520. The average NL team is on pace to win roughly 84 games. By contrast, the winning percentage in the American League is just .480. That means the average AL team is on pace to win 77 games. That’s remarkable. In fact, it’s not just remarkable, it’s historic.
For most of MLB’s history, the two leagues didn’t play in the regular season. Meaning that the records in the AL or NL were mathematically fixed at .500 since every win meant a loss for another team in the league. But since the introduction of interleague play, the current .480 winning percentage in the American League would be the worst in the modern era.
What makes this even more impressive is that it’s not as though there are a few teams well off the pace that have collectively dragged the league down. It’s just that the vast majority of the teams are aggressively mediocre.
The AL West is separated by just 4.5 games and the first-place Athletics are 17-16. The entire AL Central is separated by just four games. The only two teams with any meaningful separation above .500 are the Yankees and…Tampa Bay Rays.
So how did we get here?
Well, the obvious answer is that for all the hand-wringing about competitive balance in baseball, the 30 teams may never have been closer than they are today. Pitching has closed the gap between teams, as the ability to help design and “shape” individual pitches has made it easier than ever to find quality starters or relievers.
Several NL teams have also been more aggressive in free agency than AL counterparts. The Cubs brought in Alex Bregman, the Dodgers kept Kyle Tucker in the NL after spending most of his career in Houston, Bo Bichette moved from Toronto to the Mets. Shohei Ohtani moved over from the AL starting in 2024. Even some trades have sent stars to the NL, like when Rafael Devers was traded from Boston to the Giants in 2025.
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There are other explanations. For example, after winning the World Series in 2023, the Texas Rangers haven’t been as aggressive in free agency. And the Blue Jays have been decimated by injuries in the early part of the season.
There’s still plenty of season left, but at this point in the year, the AL is tracking well, well below the National League in terms of team quality. What does this mean for the World Series? Knowing baseball, probably an 82-win Guardians team winning a championship.
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