The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady following its monetary policy meeting this week amid the rise in inflation, while newly minted Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to hold his first post-meeting press conference.
Inflation was already elevated before the Iran war jolted energy prices higher, which has in turn contributed to key inflation measures moving further away from the Fed’s 2% target. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 4.2% in May, which was the highest level since April 2023.
That inflationary trend has prompted the market to effectively rule out an interest rate cut at this week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed panel responsible for monetary policy decisions.
Warsh’s debut at the FOMC’s post-announcement press conference will be watched closely for signs of how policymakers view the path ahead for the economy and monetary policy, with the outlook for possible interest rate cuts this year appearing dim.
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The CME FedWatch tool shows a 98.4% probability that the Fed will leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% this week. It also shows a 42.7% chance that rates remain at that level through the December meeting, narrowly ahead of a 25-basis-point cut at that time.
“While Warsh is generally perceived as dovish, he will inherit a Committee that has become noticeably more hawkish,” said EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco. “Several policymakers have recently argued that rate hikes should remain an option if inflation remains above target, and concerns around energy-driven inflation pressures have only reinforced that bias.”
JPMorgan economists led by Michael Feroli wrote that they think that given the inflation backdrop and the labor market looking stronger, the FOMC “should drop the easing bias from the post-meeting statement, replacing it with either a neutral sentence or no forward guidance at all.”
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Fed watchers will also be on the lookout for signals about possible institutional changes at the central bank in terms of its communications and projections.
Daco said that the summary of economic projections (SEP or “dot plot”) released by the Fed are likely to garner more attention than usual, given that “Warsh has repeatedly expressed skepticism toward the usefulness of economic forecasts and the dot plot of median rate expectations.”
“While we still expect the SEP and dot plot to be published in June, we would not be surprised if Warsh declined to submit his own projections. Such a decision would be largely symbolic, but it would reinforce his broader view that policymakers should place less emphasis on forecasts and more emphasis on incoming economic data,” Daco added.
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Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius and David Mericle noted the questions around whether the SEP would continue to be published and said that they don’t expect major changes in the near term.
“The FOMC just had a lengthy review of its communication practices last year in its framework review and was unable to agree on any changes,” they wrote.
The JPMorgan economists said that while Warsh has promised “regime change” at the Fed and is likely to face questions about that, he has also “always been somewhat vague about what that would entail, and at this early stage we expect he will say he has initiated a review but will avoid giving specifics.”
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