Putting Iran aside for a moment, I want to point out, besides Iranian news, just how strong the American economy is — war or not. By the way, the Dow Jones index just hit a new record high of 53,178.
Today’s Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index came in far higher than consensus estimates, and scored its seventh straight monthly gain. We haven’t seen anything like this in years. And if you run your finger down the survey category — whether its new orders, or production, or employment, or even order backlogs, it’s a power-packed report. Seven straight months.
From a policy standpoint, two big issues: first, the One Big Beautiful Republican Bill, and its immediate 100 percent expensing of business investments, including the whole semiconductor connectivity, power networking boom, is driving this manufacturing renaissance.
And, second, although mainstream economists may not like it, tariffs have refocused businesses domestic production away from offshoring. Hat-tip to our pal John Carney on this one.
This manufacturing report comes after a badly misunderstood GDP report — where the topline was only 1.5 percent growth, but the guts of the economy, which is consumer spending and business investment, actually grew at 3.9 percent. And here too, business equipment is up more than 15 percent, all at an annual rate.
Unemployment claims are at record lows. Nobody’s getting fired. The AI doomsters are wrong. Jobs are rising, not falling. The American dollar is strong. Hopefully exerting lower inflation pressures. And the aforementioned manufacturing AI productivity boom is leading to soaring profits, lower economy-wide costs, and guess what? A record breaking Dow. 53,178 at the close. How about those apples?
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