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Donald Trump has been written off a thousand times and always managed to bounce back.
He hung on when he first got in the race and was mocked as a sideshow. When the “Access Hollywood” tape came out. When his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6.
He outlasted two impeachments and four criminal cases. He won reelection when that seemed like a long shot. He’s the Harry Houdini of Washington.
And on Saturday night, he survived his third assassination attempt. At a dinner that was expected to feature the president mocking the media, his calm response to being targeted by a heavily armed shooter generated enormous sympathy for him. It’s a dangerous job, he said.
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In fact, he “fought like hell” to continue with the Correspondents’ Association dinner, but the Secret Service – one of whose members was shot but saved by a protective vest – insisted on clearing the room.
At the same time, Trump has such mounting political problems that it’s hard to avoid the conclusion he’s in a free fall.
The president is bogged down in an unpopular war and canceled the latest talks. Rising gas prices are inflicting pain at home. He may be losing the redistricting wars. Some of his most prominent supporters in the conservative media have turned on him with a vengeance, even apologizing for having supported him.
That’s not all. The Democrats are virtually certain to win the House. They are talking about impeaching Trump the day they’re sworn in. Sure, he’d be acquitted in the Senate, but his last two years would be a blizzard of investigations and payback.
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What’s more, the president can’t run again. He’ll still have the power of incumbency, but the House can block most of what he wants to do (and this is beyond the media fantasy that the opposition party could take the Senate as well).
In the ever-present polls, Trump has dropped as low as 33% approval in an AP survey, his worst numbers ever.
More eye-popping is a new survey with a large sample, from Strength in Numbers/Verasight, which says 21% of Republicans support impeachment, with 72% opposed. Among independents, 50% back impeaching the president.
And a Fox News poll found more respondents trusting the Democrats over the Republicans on the economy, by four points, for the first time in 15 years.
This comes against the backdrop of Trump having fired three women in his Cabinet, creating a sense of disorder, and his wife giving a televised speech to deny any involvement with Jeffrey Epstein.
But let’s have a reality check.
Trump’s relentless attacks on the press have taken their toll, with many dismissing the coverage as fueled by personal hostility. And Democrats, with few exceptions, aren’t helping themselves by appearing to root for the Iranian terrorists when our service members are at risk.
By November, the Iran war could be a distant memory. The economy might enjoy an uptick. Even now, with the ceasefire collapsing over the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the stock market has hit record highs.
Trump will use his media mastery to dominate the news agenda. He already takes calls from reporters at all hours.
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The Democrats, meanwhile, are leaderless. Even if Hakeem Jeffries is speaker, the president will make far more news. That won’t change until the 2028 primaries, when a front-runner or two emerges.
Trump can make news with executive orders, such as moving marijuana to a lower classification and boosting research into psychedelic drugs.
The betrayal being voiced by his onetime allies on the right, who embraced his pledge of no new foreign wars, may be less important for those not immersed in the online world. But it is a bellwether for the splintering of the MAGA coalition.
Now some of its leading members are calling him erratic and reckless.
No one is loving this more than the Democrats and the Never Trumpers, who say wait, you’re just noticing this now? We’ve been telling you this for years.
“Trump looks desperate to run for the hills,” says New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd. “He constantly says he has defeated the mullahs and ‘obliterated’ their military power, and yet Iran refuses to be subdued.”
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What’s obvious, says veteran columnist Andrew Sullivan: “Trump is completely out of his depth. He went to war impulsively. He never expected the Iranians to close the Strait of Hormuz; and then they did. And he can’t re-open it. In fact, he decided to close it again. Or something.”
Throw in the AI image of Trump as Jesus, which offended many Catholics, and the list of unforced errors just grows. He’s even attacked the Supreme Court, a third of which he appointed.
And there is growing concern about the health of the president, who will soon turn 80, with television running footage every time he closes his eyes at a meeting.
Trump regularly talks about building his massive ballroom, which reminds people of his surprise demolition of the East Wing and plans for a monument that would dwarf the Arc de Triomphe. He brought it up after the gunfire on Saturday night, saying the ballroom would be bulletproof and extremely secure.
Trump also used the gunfire at the Washington Hilton to underscore his own importance. Having studied assassinations, he said, “the most impactful people, the people that do the most… they’re the ones they go after.”
Politically speaking, Trump is clearly struggling. But anyone who rules out a rebound for this president is ignoring history.
There will be all kinds of twists and turns in the remaining six months before the midterms, and the Democrats are unpopular as well.
But here’s a moment of rare consensus: We can all be grateful that the Secret Service did its job well.
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