Sometimes these exercises in writing about teams can be a lot of fun because they remind me of the previous season and all that happened. It isn’t often that I remember everything about a situation, but I feel like I do a generally good job of keeping track of how the previous season went.
It becomes a blur to a certain extent, though. Try and name the last five Super Bowl losers, it is often harder than the winner. Honestly, I completely forgot about the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they were surprisingly good last season.
The 2025 season
Jacksonville was able to steal the division last season and they were even 13-4 overall. The team was 10-2 against the AFC, and scored 138 more points than they allowed. They also ended the season hotter than almost any team in the game, winning their last eight games.
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After Week 10, they were 5-4 and coming off of a loss to the Houston Texans. They closed out the season with wins over the Chargers, Cardinals, Titans (twice), Colts (twice), New York and Denver. Denver and Los Angeles were playoff teams, but the other six games were against fairly weak competition. They lost a heartbreaker to Buffalo in the Wild Card round, dropping that one 27-24.
Offseason additions and subtractions
There wasn’t a ton of stuff the Jaguars needed to do. They are a very good club and solid roster. They did lose Travis Etienne to the Saints, but most people will tell you that running backs are easily replaced. I’m not sure Etienne is that elite of a back that the Jaguars will have a big issue.
They signed a few key players on the line of scrimmage to extensions, but they did lose Devin Lloyd and Greg Newsome. Letting those guys walk did give them some picks so it might not be that big of a loss long term, even if it does hurt this season.
Roster
The team has quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who might be the most difficult quarterback for me to evaluate in the NFL. There is no question, he was awesome last year. He had the 6th most yards, was fifth in touchdowns, but did still throw 12 interceptions.
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He was also middle of the road as far as QBR. He has 98 touchdowns and 58 interceptions in his 77 games. There is another player who has 83 games, 89 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions – their yardage is about the same. That’s Daniel Jones, so you can make a decision on if you think Lawrence is great or not.
Either way he has had multiple coaches and schemes, so I don’t blame him completely. The rest of the offense is fine – Brian Thomas is a solid receiver, as is Jakobi Meyers, and anything you get from Travis Hunter is bonus. They have strong, young defense as well, punctuated by Hunter at cornerback. I’m interested to see how their linebackers play without Lloyd, but he wasn’t playing all three downs normally anyway.
Betting Outlook
The Jacksonville Jaguars are listed at 8.5 for their win total. That’s a major step back. If I look at their schedule, they have a bye week on Week 7 and I think they could very well be 1-5 if things don’t go well. 2-3 or 3-2 seems more likely, though. They have a tougher schedule this year, but should still win seven games without much issue. Getting another two from the list does seem like it could be a challenge. I think I’d stay away from the win total.
I do think Lawrence will go over 3,774.5 passing yards, though. He has gone over 4,000 in three of his five seasons. In 2024, when he played only 10 games, he had 2,045. He would’ve gone under that year too at the same pace. I think with Etienne leaving and his second year in the offensive system he should throw more. I don’t think he is great and I’m willing to bet the over if that gives you confidence.
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