Because the Philadelphia Phillies have had a disappointing start, collectively, to the 2026 season, it’s easy to miss what Kyle Schwarber is doing.
Schwarber, even in his early 30’s, has taken his offensive game to a whole new level. In 2025, Schwarber exploded with 56 home runs, a new career high. Through the first 46 games of the 2026 season, he might be on his way to an even more impressive and historic number.
Remarkably, Schwarber’s already hit 20 home runs through his first 46 games. Through 162 games, that would put him on pace for 70 home runs in 2026.
Where does that stack up historically? Only two players in MLB history have ever hit 70 home runs or more in a season, Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire. What else does those two players have in common? Both were linked to performance enhancing drugs. And in fact, the players who populate the leader board of all-time single season homer runs is primarily concentrated in that era.
AARON JUDGE IS ONCE AGAIN ON PACE TO MAKE HISTORY, THREATEN HIS OWN AL SINGLE-SEASON HOME RUN RECORD
- Bonds 73
- McGwire 70
- Sammy Sosa 66
- McGwire 65
- Sosa 64
- Sosa 63
Until you get to Aaron Judge’s incredible 62 home run season in 2022, it’s Bonds, McGwire and Sosa. Could Schwarber challenge the 70 home run mark and in doing so, become the first to ever reach that number without some type of PED connection? Even looking into some historic comparisons, Schwarber’s 2026 has been impressive.
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When Judge hit 62 in 2022, he reached 20 home runs on June 3rd. Bonds reached 20 on May 19th in the year he hit 73. Schwarber reached 20 on May 15th. His latest coming during a crazy Phillies comeback win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday.
He’s had more home runs since May 7 than 22 teams. He has more total bases in the first inning this year than the entire San Diego Padres offense. It’s incredible.
Looking at the data behind his season, there’s some reason for optimism and reason for skepticism. Schwarber’s average launch angle thus far is 23.6, by far, the highest of his career. Hit the ball in the air more, have more opportunity for home runs. But it’s not just that he’s hitting it higher; he’s hitting it higher with authority. Schwarber’s career barrel rate is 16.6%. This year? It’s 26.2%. Making that level of elite contact, in the air, is a recipe for success.
That said, his expected statistics aren’t quite as rosy. His actual slugging percentage, .642, is 50 points higher than his “expected” slugging, which is .592. Still elite, but it points to some level of good fortune with his results. Same with his home run/fly ball rate, at 33.9%. Last year, 28.6% of fly balls he hit turned into homers, and that 5+ percentage point increase may not be likely to continue.
Still, this is a remarkable start to a season. And if Schwarber continues on this trend, it’ll be a historic finish too.
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