I finally got off the slide last night and now have won three of the past four MLB games that I’ve played. I did catch a little bit of luck yesterday as the Diamondbacks scored three runs in the bottom of the fifth inning. In fairness, they were winning until the top of the fifth. It was nice to be on the right side of it either way. Tonight, we head to the American League and look for a win.
If you’re familiar with Greek mythology at all, you’ve probably heard about Sisyphus. For those who don’t know, he was a guy who was condemned by the Greek gods to push a huge boulder up the hill, only for it to roll back down every time it got to the top. That’s how I feel about the Texas Rangers. Every time they get close to looking like a winning team, they have a setback and go back under .500. They are over for the moment at 42-41, and perhaps, this is the time they get the boulder over and keep moving forward. However, I think they are what they are – an average team that needs to find a way to get on a roll.
Starting pitching really hasn’t been the problem for the Rangers. It has been more about a lack of consistent offense. Today, they send out Jacob deGrom to do his work. We know that deGrom’s arm was blessed by the gods early in his career, but even now, he is still turning in solid outings. He is 6-5 for the season with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He has struggled on the road this year with a 4.60 road ERA. What is crazy is that he has three games where he allowed six earned runs. He faced Cleveland earlier this month and allowed no runs in six innings of work.
I’m not sure I have a mythological comparison for the Cleveland Guardians. All I can say about this team is that every year, they seem to be one of the better teams in baseball and find a way to win despite not having top-tier talent. Perhaps that is a lesson in roster construction for the rest of the league. The Guardians are three games over .500, and they are one game back of the White Sox, so you can once again count on them having a say on who wins the division.
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What the Guardians have always done a very good job of is finding reliable starting pitching. Tonight, they have Tanner Bibee taking the hill. Bibee is 2-8 for the season with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He is doing slightly better at home than on the road. However, he has allowed more homers at home than on the road. And, he has allowed identical earned runs on the road as at home this season; he just has one more start at home and roughly five more innings. Bibee also faced the Rangers earlier this month and turned in his best start of the year. He went eight scoreless innings and allowed three hits.
Bibee has good numbers against Rangers hitters in his career, with just 11 hits allowed in 56 at-bats. Jake Burger might be worth a look at for total bases or a homer, as he is 2-for-5 with two homers against him. I’m not sure I’ll get involved in the player prop market for this game, though.
The play here is to take the Rangers. Call it a bit of a hunch, but if I’m backing either of these pitchers to replicate the performance from earlier in the month, I’m taking deGrom. He has struggled a bit on the road, but part of that is from the really bad games. Otherwise, he is pitching fairly well. Give me the Rangers on the moneyline tonight.
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