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The first Fox News Power Rankings of the 2026 midterm elections and a new poll both indicate an extremely close contest between longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Troy Jackson, the candidate set to replace ex-nominee Graham Platner as the Democratic challenger, in what’s expected to be a premiere Senate battleground.
The Fox News Power Rankings, which gauge the competitiveness of elections using data, reporting, and analysis, ranks the showdown in Maine as a toss-up. The midterm ballot box battle is one of roughly a dozen Senate contests that will determine if the Democrats win back the chamber or if Republicans hold onto their slim majority.
Meanwhile, a Pine Tree Poll conducted over the past seven days by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center indicates Jackson with a slight three-point edge over Collins among likely general election voters in Maine.
WHO’S UP AND WHO’S DOWN: CHECK OUT THE FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS ON THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS
Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, is on a glide path to replace Platner at Saturday’s Maine Democratic Party nominating convention in Bangor, after winning the vast majority of the 500 voting delegates chosen this past weekend by Democrats in the state’s 16 counties. And most of Jackson’s top rivals for the nomination backed him after dropping out of the race on Sunday.
While the delegates on Jackson’s slate are not required to support him at the convention in Bangor, Maine, he is now considered all but certain to secure the nomination.
A fifth-generation logger and a one-time conservative Republican who became a Democrat over two decades ago, Jackson came in third place last month in Maine’s Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Platner dropped out earlier this month, amid calls from top Democrats in Maine and across the country to immediately exit the race following an explosive report containing an allegation of rape from a woman he previously dated. Platner denied the report but stepped aside.
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Jackson, who had campaigned alongside Platner during the primary, quickly made the case that he was the best equipped candidate to grab the mantle of the progressive and populist movement that had backed Platner.
Along with Platner, Jackson had the support of progressive champion Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont as he ran for governor, and he is currently backed by Our Revolution, the group born in 2016 out of Sanders’ first presidential campaign.
Jackson, similar to Platner, is running on a platform aimed at working-class voters. He backs raising taxes on billionaires, the universal healthcare system known as “Medicare-for-all,” abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and he opposes military aid to Israel at a time that Democrats are increasingly divided on support for America’s longtime Middle East ally.
Collins, as she runs for a sixth six-year term in the Senate, is facing a rough political climate for Republicans, amid GOP President Donald Trump’s underwater approval ratings, persistent inflation and what polls indicate is an unpopular war with Iran.
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The senator, known as a moderate Republican who at times has voted against Trump, last month received bipartisan praise after reaching a milestone by casting her 10,000th consecutive Senate vote.
But Democrats are taking aim at Collins over her comments that she didn’t regret her 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, despite his crucial vote four years later to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion ruling.
And following the fatal shooting in Maine earlier this month involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, Democrats heavily criticized the Senate Appropriations Committee chair for her support for ICE funding.
But Collins has a history of defeating the Democrats’ efforts to oust her from the Senate.
Six years ago, she trailed Democratic challenger Sara Gideon, the then-Maine House speaker, but the senator ended up winning re-election by nearly 9 points.
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Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate. That means Democrats would need a net gain of four seats in the midterms to retake the majority, which they lost in the 2024 elections.
The Senate race in Maine, along with battles for Republican-controlled Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, are ranked as toss-ups in the Fox News Power Rankings.
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